One day after the midterm elections in the United States, vital control of the US Congress remains up in the air after a day in which although the Republicans recovered some ground, the Democrats defied many of the expectations.
So far, the elephant party seems on track to regain power in the House of Representatives, but the future of the Senate is uncertain, where President Joe Biden’s party still has great chances of preserving the majority. Some results that surprise the majority since all the electoral models predicted a Republican sweep.
(Also read: Elections in the US: control of Chambers, pending after adjusted results)
Without knowing the final composition of the Congress yet, which could take several days or weeks, there are five lessons that can already be drawn, as well as the implications that these electoral results would have for Colombia.
There was no red tide
For weeks, the main polling firms and think tanks dedicated to monitoring elections in the United States they pointed to a great night for the Republican party in both the House and the Senate. Not only based on what the polls said but because of a context that clearly favored them.
Almost by tradition, the party that controls both the White House and Congress – in this case the Democrats – often lose seats in midterm elections.
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This is especially true when the president’s popularity is below 50 percent, since the elections are usually seen as a referendum on his mandate. Biden’s average, in this case, was 40 percent in most polls.
Likewise, the terrain was served by the acute economic crisis facing the country with record levels of inflation, the increase in crime and the migratory tsunami on the southern border. All issues where they are strong and that exploded during the campaign.
The calculations, on the eve of the elections, were that they could reach a majority of between 20 and 40 seats in the Lower House and 2 or 4 in the Senate. In the case of the Chamber, the partial counts continue to indicate that they will obtain a majority but by a smaller margin than expected.
And in the Upper House the prognosis was even more reserved. The Democrats already had secured at least 48 votes and were emerging as winners in Arizona and Nevada with which they would obtain the 50 votes that guarantee them control.
They also would have won in Georgia where pastor Raphael Warnock outscored former football player Herschel Walker. Since neither of them got 50 percent or more, there will be a special election in December to determine the winner. But that result would not be vital if wins in Nevada and Arizona are secured.
In fact, they could even expand their control if they also win in December.
(Keep reading: Why can it take several days for results in the US to be known?)
The most likely scenario is that of a divided Congress where Republicans control the House and Democrats the Senate.
What is striking about this scenario is that although the voters confirmed in the exit polls that their main concern is the economy and that they do not support Biden’s management, when voting they considered other things.
Although the verdict is not yet clear, experts pointed to several factors to explain the Republican deflation in the elections. On the one hand, the selection of far-right or inexperienced candidates to represent them in competitive states.
This was evident in some races for the Senate such as those in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada, where the party played for controversial figures who ended up “scare” voters. The most concrete example is Georgia, where Republican Governor Brian Kemp won reelection by more than 300,000 votes, but Walker was losing by about 35,000.
And the same thing was seen in several races for the House, which seemed competitive for the Republicans, but in which they lost due to the quality of the candidates who were elected in the primaries.
It won’t be easy for Biden
At this point, if the trajectory holds, the most likely scenario is that of a divided Congress where Republicans control the House and Democrats the Senate.
Biden, of course, will not be the first president to govern in these circumstances. In fact, all three of his immediate predecessors, Donald Trump, Barack Obama, and George W. Bush, governed at some point under those conditions.
That said, he has two very difficult years ahead of him. His agenda, given the precarious majority of Democrats in both houses, was already limited to the few issues where there was consensus. Now that the Republicans would control the House, it could be paralyzed and, as former occupants of the White House, reduced to ruling by decree.
(You can read: Why will the United States experience an election full of uncertainty?)
In addition, it is most likely that the Republicans will open multiple investigations against him, especially for the handling of the border, the withdrawal from Afghanistan and even for his son Hunter’s business dealings with China.
It is even viable until the beginning of an impeachment process that would not advance -because there are no votes to remove him in the Senate- but that could weaken him in the face of a possible candidacy for the 2024 elections.
Trump, the great loser
To a large extent, Trump’s political fortunes depended on the outcome of these midterm elections. That is because the former president almost handpicked many of the candidates who represented the Republicans in the elections.
And while many of them won their races, most did so in red states where Democrats had no chance but lost in swing or competitive states, which are the ones that weigh in presidential elections.
In other words, as happened in the 2020 elections, Trump’s name ended up subtracting instead of adding. It is clear, yes, that the former president continues to have great influence among the party’s base.
Given the results of this Tuesday, more than one will begin to wonder if it is time to get out of his shadow. In addition, potential rivals for the party’s nomination for the 2024 election may be more inclined to challenge him now that he looks weak.
That’s particularly true of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who won re-election overwhelmingly and is seen as embodying the ideals of Trumpism but without all the baggage the former president carries.
(Keep reading: Why are the United States legislatures important for Colombia?)
The right to abortion weighed heavily
Although there are many explanations for the bittersweet Republican night, Without a doubt, the debate on the right to abortion in the US ended up partially tipping the scales.
According to exit polls, a third of voters identified this issue as the most important in deciding. Almost in the same proportion to those who put the economy as the most relevant.
A debate that was out of everyone’s calculations until the summer, when the Supreme Court of Justice, controlled by conservatives, ended up toppling Roe versus Wade, which had granted constitutional protections to the practice for almost 50 years. A decision that infuriated part of the electorate and revived the aspirations of a Democratic party that until then had seemed moribund.
(Also: The electoral struggles that will define control of the United States Congress)
Without a doubt, the debate on abortion rights in the US ended up partially tipping the balance
In the elections this Tuesday, in fact, several initiatives that sought to ban abortion at the state level were defeated, even in red states, and in others others were approved to guarantee their protection.
Perhaps that explains the Republicans’ poor showing among voters who consider themselves independents. Historically, this vote tends to favor the opposition party by differences that exceed two digits. But according to exit polls this time they slightly favored the Democrats.
Florida is already a red state
Florida’s shift from an electoral swing state to one that favors Republicans has already been evident in past elections. But the results of this Tuesday show an almost absolute turn towards the elephant party.
Not only because of DeSantis’ landslide victory, which took almost 20 points from his rival, but because of the triumphs of Senator Marco Rubio and other representatives to the House in districts previously dominated by Democrats. That in large part thanks to the Latino vote that overwhelmingly backed the Republicans.
Both De Santis and Rubio, for example, won Miami-Dade, until recently considered a Democratic stronghold.
This is very bad news for the party in power given the weight of Florida in the presidential elections and the large number of representatives it sends to the lower house.
Colombia and the results
A congress controlled by Republicans will guarantee moments of high friction with the new government of President Gustavo Petro and other leftist leaders in the region, particularly for their position on the fight against drugs, Venezuela and illegal migration.
If it is confirmed that there will be a divided Congress, the potential for discrepancies remains high since the House has the power to open investigations, hold hearings and approve the budget. But to a lesser degree given that any policy change must be approved by the Senate and signed by President Biden, who has so far been willing to maintain a functional relationship with the new president.
(On other topics: Migration is no longer the key issue for the Latino vote in the United States, what is it?)
That said, the upper house that emerges from these elections will tend to be more centrist -due to its very composition- and will remain firm in its opposition to rapprochement with Venezuela.
In addition, as the 2024 presidential elections draw closer, rhetoric against countries or governments that are seen as socialist or sympathetic to this current is likely to increase.
SERGIO GOMEZ MASERI
Correspondent of THE TIME
Washington
On Twitter @sergom68
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