This Sunday (5), a survey carried out by Siena College in partnership with the American newspaper The New York Times pointed out that former US President Donald Trump (2017-2021), favorite to win the Republican Party primaries, is ahead of the current American president, Joe Biden, who will probably run for re-election for the Democratic Party, in the race for the presidency of the USA in 2024.
The poll indicates that Trump would beat the Democrat in five of the six key states in the American presidential election, which will take place next year. According to the results, Trump leads in the American states of Nevada, with 52% against Biden’s 41%; Georgia, with 49% against Biden’s 43%; Arizona, with 49% against Biden’s 44%; Michigan, with 48% against Biden’s 43%; and Pennsylvania, with 48% against Biden’s 44%. The current American president would only win in Wisconsin, with a small difference – 47% against Trump’s 45%.
The survey was conducted by telephone between October 22 and November 3 and involved 3,600 registered voters in the six states, which did not give either presidential candidate an absolute majority of votes in the last election.
In 2020, when Biden defeated Trump and was elected president of the USA, he won the race against the Republican in all states where Trump is currently leading voting intentions.
In addition to second place in voting intentions in key states, the survey also indicated that Biden is losing support among younger American voters: only 41% of voters aged between 18 and 29 have decided, definitively or probably, to vote for the Democrat, compared to 40% who would vote for Trump. In the general scenario, Trump would win the American presidential elections by 48% against Biden’s 44%.
The results also show that 66% of those interviewed say that the country is heading in the wrong direction under Biden’s command. Another 59% disapprove of the way the Democrat holds his office (46% strongly disapprove) and 71% agree with the idea that, at 80, Biden “is too old to be an effective president.”
The poll also found that black voters, once seen as a strong wing for Democrats, now registered 22% support for Trump in key states. Trump is also seen by most voters in these states as the leader most capable of managing the US economy and international conflicts, such as the current war between the terrorist group Hamas and Israel in the Middle East.
The survey released this Sunday is not the first in which the current American head of state trails Trump. In September this year, a survey resulting from the partnership between the American broadcaster ABC News and the newspaper The Washington Post It also showed that former President Trump was leading voting intentions to return to the White House in 2024. According to the survey, 51% of American voters would vote for Trump while 42% would choose Biden in next year’s elections.
The search ABC News/Post
also pointed out that more than 50% of the American population disapproves of the current Biden government and that 74% of those interviewed point to his age as a negative factor for a possible second term.
“When polls include another Democrat other than President Biden, the results are more optimistic. There is really a critical stance towards President Biden’s age, who has already demonstrated limitations from a physical point of view on some public occasions”, he says in an interview with People’s Gazette Christopher Mendonça, PhD in Political Science and professor at the Brazilian Institute of Capital Markets (Ibmec) in Minas Gerais.
For Mendonça, the current public erosion of Biden and the Democrats is “the factor driving Trump’s rise in the electoral polls”. The professor noted that the American economy is not experiencing one of its best moments and that “important promises presented by Biden failed to materialize” in this first term. The research of the Teams revealed that 52% of those interviewed believe that the American economy is bad at the moment.
Trump, in turn, managed to maintain good economic results during his government and this could be one of the strong points that are leading American voters to opt for the Republican in voting intention polls, noted the professor.
International conflicts such as the war in Ukraine and the current ongoing conflict in the Middle East between Hamas terrorists and Israel may also be contributing to the preference for Trump over Biden.
“Certainly the conduct of Biden’s foreign policy, especially related to international conflicts, is a factor in the government’s discredit,” says Mendonça. According to him, the Biden administration allocated “a lot of resources” to countries in conflict and achieved “few results”.
“On the external front, the war in Ukraine and the Middle East is being seen by the American electorate as a point of disapproval for the president. Many resources have already been allocated to these locations without there being a clear change in the context of hostilities”, said the professor.
On the other hand, Mendonça explained that “Trump governed a country that stayed away from major international problems” and that this is a “point of strength that supports his name as a competitive candidate”.
“Trump is the name that radically opposes a government that has not performed well. In the economy, in foreign policy, in immigration issues and even in progressive proposals, Biden has not been able to deliver to his voters what he promised in the past”, said Mendonça.
Another factor that may be contributing to Biden coming in second in the polls and Trump taking first place is the Democrat’s drop in popularity among younger voters, Latinos and blacks, who were the biggest supporters of his campaign in the last election.
According to the survey of Teams57% of Black voters, 58% of Latino voters, and 67% of young voters ages 18 to 29 think the U.S. is heading in the wrong direction under the Biden administration.
“The promises made to these groups were simply not fulfilled or were partially fulfilled”, explained Mendonça. “Biden’s progressive agenda met with resistance in Congress, immigration is still a difficult factor for Democrats and the economy certainly has not benefited economically active populations, mostly made up of young people”, added the professor.
The various lawsuits that Trump is facing at the moment do not seem to be an obstacle to his popularity, much less to him continuing to lead the US presidential polls that have been released so far. However, Mendonça states that the legal battle that the former president is currently facing could “change electoral behavior in the next election”.
“There may be a erosion of Trump’s image through the campaign undertaken by the Democrats,” said the professor. Despite this, it is still important “to consider that the former president has not, so far, found any decision that would prevent him from contesting the elections. Unlike Brazil, where a conviction in the second instance prevents a politician from running for office, in the USA this situation is not established”, he added.
To the Teams, Monica Fermin, a Latina voter residing in the state of Pennsylvania and who voted for Biden in 2020, said that the current American president is “very old and has no mental capacity”. For her, the USA needs “someone stronger” at this moment and that is why she sees Trump as the best alternative for next year’s elections.
Fermin pointed to the current US economic scenario and unemployment as other main factors for the change of sides.
“Jobs are down because Biden didn’t know how to deal with the pandemic,” she said. Fermin concluded by saying that “Trump didn’t know at the beginning [como lidar com a economia e o
Coronavírus]but Biden was even worse.”
The Latina voter’s speech matches the observation made by Professor Mendonça. According to him, the “main change since the last election concerns the economic indicators that place the Biden administration in a critical position”.
Mendonça pointed out that the post-pandemic recovery of the American economy under the Biden government “was not as positive as promised in the context of the electoral campaign”.
“The conduct of the economy is the main factor that poses electoral difficulties for Biden in certain states. Evidently, there is still a year to go before the electoral process and that the results from now on may change, but so far the economic variable is what has the greatest impact on popular preference in these states”, said the professor.
“I think for me it’s all the promises Biden broke that make me want to switch to Trump [em
2024]”, said Elaine Ramirez to the Teams. Ramirez is a Latina voter residing in the state of Nevada and who has always voted for Democratic candidates.
In the American newspaper’s report, she states that she voted for Biden in 2020 and said that the Democrat promised to reduce inflation and improve the economy during his term. However, according to Ramirez, the current president has not fulfilled these promises.
Ramirez still maintains his criticism of former President Trump, but believes that right now the US needs someone like him to “fix the economy and the country”.
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