Presidential and parliamentary elections are scheduled for May 14, with a possible second round on May 28.
Elections will not only determine who will lead the country, but also how it will be governed, and where its economy and foreign policy will go.
Erdogan, the longest-serving leader in modern Turkey, has championed religious considerations and low interest rates while asserting Turkish influence in the region and declining the NATO member’s ties with the West.
The elections are held 3 months after strong earthquakes hit the southeast of the country, killing more than 50,000 people.
Erdogan’s main rival is Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the leader of the secular Republican People’s Party (CHP), which has the support of a coalition of six opposition parties.
What is at stake for Turkey?
Erdogan is the country’s most powerful leader since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk founded the modern Turkish Republic a century ago. Erdogan and his party (Justice and Development), based on Islamic roots, distanced the country from Ataturk’s secular approach.
Erdoğan has also concentrated power around an executive presidency, based in a 1,000-room palace on the outskirts of Ankara, that sets policy on the country’s economic, security, domestic, and international affairs.
Critics say his government has silenced dissent, undermined rights and subjugated the justice system – a charge denied by officials who say it has protected citizens from security threats including an attempted coup in 2016.
Economists say Erdogan’s calls for interest rate cuts pushed inflation to a 24-year high of 85 percent last year, and the lira plunged to a tenth of its value against the dollar over the past decade.
What is at stake for the rest of the world?
Under the rule of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey has displayed its military strength in the Middle East and beyond. It has launched 4 incursions into Syria, an attack on Kurdish militants inside Iraq, and has sent military support to Libya and Azerbaijan.
Turkey also witnessed a series of diplomatic confrontations with powers in the Middle East, in addition to a confrontation with Greece and Cyprus over the maritime borders in the eastern Mediterranean, until it changed course two years ago and sought rapprochement with some of its opponents.
Erdogan’s purchase of Russian air defenses led to US sanctions targeting Ankara’s arms industry, while his closeness to Russian President Vladimir Putin raised skepticism from critics about Turkey’s commitment to NATO. Ankara’s objections to Sweden and Finland’s requests to join NATO also caused tension.
However, Turkey brokered an agreement that allowed Ukrainian wheat to be exported across the Black Sea, suggesting a role Erdogan may play in efforts to end the war in Ukraine. It is not yet clear whether there is a possible successor to him who is able to enjoy the same image Erdogan has drawn for himself on the international stage, a point he is likely to focus on in the election campaign.
What are the promises of the opposition?
The two main opposition parties, the secular Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the centre-right nationalist Good Party, have allied themselves with four smaller parties behind a platform that would repeal many of the policies that characterized Erdogan’s rule.
These parties have pledged to restore independence to the central bank and to reverse Erdogan’s unorthodox economic policies. The opposition also intends to dismantle his executive presidency and return to the previous parliamentary system, as well as sending Syrian refugees back to their country.
The parties also aim to improve relations with Western allies including the United States, and to return Turkey to the F-35 fighter jet programme, from which it was excluded after purchasing Russian missile defenses.
Analysts believe that the policies promised by the opposition may stimulate foreign investment.
Erdogan backed failed efforts to topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, while hosting at least 3.6 million Syrian refugees who are increasingly unwelcome amid Turkey’s economic woes.
The opposition has spoken of plans similar to Erdogan’s to return some refugees to Syria, but neither has specified how this can be implemented safely.
How intense is the race?
The latest opinion polls show that Kilicdaroglu is ahead of Erdogan, whose popularity has been hurt by the cost of living crisis caused by rampant inflation. Analysts say the united front presented by the opposition has boosted its chances.
However, Erdogan is still competing strongly in the presidential race, which may witness a second round between him and Kilicdaroglu.
Preliminary opinion polls since the earthquakes have indicated that Erdogan has managed to largely maintain his popular support, despite accusations of a slow government response to the disaster and lax enforcement of building regulations that might have saved lives.
How the opposition mobilizes support for the Kurds, who represent 15 percent of the electorate, will remain a key point.
The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) is not part of the main opposition alliance, but it strongly opposes Erdogan after a crackdown on its members in recent years.
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