Press
Trump could go into the election against Biden on probation. The base of the “MAGA” movement is likely to continue to stand behind the ex-president. Some are already calling for violence.
New York – A historic guilty verdict against Donald Trump: On Thursday (30 May) the Jury in “hush money trial” finds former US president guilty on all 34 countsThe jury therefore considers it proven that Trump, among other things, paid hush money to a former porn actress in order to manipulate the 2016 US election.
Trump is still allowed to continue his campaign for the presidential election in November, and even from prison he is allowed to campaign against the incumbent Joe Biden Trump’s lawyer has already announced that he will appeal, so the case will likely remain pending for months. So what does the guilty verdict mean for the presidential election in the USA?
Bizarre election campaign, “MAGA” base threatens violence – what the Trump verdict from New York means
The actual election campaign could become a lot more bizarre, speculated the German Press Agency (dpa) after the verdict. According to the polls, little is likely to change for Trump in terms of his established voter base in the partly right-wing radical “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement. There could be major shifts in other voter groups. At the same time, the risk of an outbreak of violence from the MAGA base is increasing, as a look at social networks shows. Trump would sit in the dock in the three other criminal cases as a convicted criminal.
Trump’s imprisonment unlikely after verdict – “Bizarre” election campaign against Biden possible
According to the dpaunlikely. Not least because Trump has no previous convictions. Alternatively, Judge Juan Merchan could impose a suspended sentence or fine as well as house arrest or community service. Merchan plans to announce the sentence on July 11, shortly before the nomination convention of the republicanannounce. If he chooses Trump as the presidential candidate, as expected, this could lead to a situation that the news agency can only describe as “bizarre”: A candidate for the highest office in the state might have to comply with probationary conditions while running an election campaign.
Trump’s “MAGA” base has already completely ignored rulings – support among young people is crumbling
The base of the Trump-supporting “MAGA” movement has already ignored very different judgments against Donald Trump. In January, for example, Trump was ordered to pay 83.3 million US dollars: Trump had insulted the author E. Jean Carroll after she accused him of raping her in the 1990s. In May 2023, Trump was found liable in a civil case for sexually abusing Carroll.
On the possible impact on Trump’s performance in the US election In November, little can be said about the polls. Although polling institutes have been asking about Trump’s hypothetical criminal record for months, mixing hypothetical and real options in surveys is considered highly questionable in social science. Under this premise, the New York Times (NYT) a thesis from the institutes’ surveys Siena and Marquette Trump’s base in voting groups that historically tend to be Democrats tend to crumble.
Republican Party remains absolutely loyal to Donald Trump even after conviction
According to the survey, around 20 percent of young Trump supporters said they would vote for Joe Biden if Trump were convicted. Overall, around seven percent of the ex-president’s supporters would vote for Biden if he were convicted. It remained unclear whether these voters live in states that are relevant to the outcome of the presidential election. So far, Trump’s Republican Party has also remained absolutely loyal to him.
“Hang everyone” – Extremists in the “MAGA” movement mobilize after verdict against Trump
The ranks behind Donald Trump are currently closed. Heavily armed, right-wing extremist militias are also part of the “MAGA” movement. On January 6, 2021, the movement proved with the storming of the US Capitol that it is prepared to risk an uprising against democratic institutions for Trump. After the verdict, the news agency Reuters Reactions in the right-wing social media ecosystem. A million men should go to the capital Washington “armed” and “hang everyone,” wrote one Trump supporter. The agency listed almost a dozen such comments. The ex-president himself also hinted at the beginning of May that he was considering another outbreak of violence if he lost the election in November.
Trump verdict as an “excuse” for “MAGA” extremists – experts fear outbreak of violence
This is highly problematic, said Jacob Ware, extremism expert at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank. Trump’s reaction to the verdict will be crucial to whether there could be an outbreak of violence: “As long as he does not accept the rule of law, the extremist reaction to his legal problems will be militant,” Ware said. His colleague Amy Cooter from Middlebury University added that many of these extremists had “been looking for an excuse to mobilize for some time.” (kb)
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