Within 24 hours, an armed rebellion led by the head of the “Wagner” private military group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, broke out, ending with an agreement mediated by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, stipulating the departure of Prigozhin, who tried to overthrow the Russian military leadership, to Belarus.
Putin’s talk about his confidence in “all plans and tasks related to special military operations” in Ukraine sparked talk about the circle close to the Russian president, and the extent to which it was affected by the recent Wagner rebellion crisis.
What is Putin’s inner circle?
A Western media woman says that the close circle with which the Russian president discusses defining his country’s policies is “very small”, and she is the one who managed the war with him in Ukraine, in addition to a number of officials known as the “Siloviki” group, and he is also holding a video meeting with his Security Council. .
- Sergei Shoigu .. Technocratic Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, directs the war in Ukraine and supervises the modern Russian army, including the Military Intelligence Agency, and participates in making and implementing major military decisions, as well as regularly spending short vacations with Putin hunting and fishing in Siberia , allowing him to communicate directly with the Russian president.
- Nikolai Patrushev.. the former Soviet intelligence officer whom Putin met in Leningrad in 1970, and holds the position of Chairman of the Russian Security Council, and is nicknamed “The Hawk”, and Patrushev plays the informal role of Putin’s national security advisor.
- Alexander Bortnikov.. Head of the Russian Federal Security Service, whom Putin has also known for 4 decades, leads the agency responsible for internal security and intelligence, and plays a major role in maintaining Putin’s control.
- Sergey Naryshkin.. the head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, has known Putin since the nineties of the last century, when they both worked in the office of the mayor of St. Petersburg, and is considered one of the most loyal officials to Putin, and is known for his strict ideas towards the West.
- Valery Gerasimov.. the 67-year-old chief of staff of the Russian army, who was appointed early this year as commander of the “special military operation” in Ukraine, as he considered this decision to support the position of the Russian army at the expense of Wagner’s forces.
‘The system is in danger’
For his part, Brian Whitmore, senior researcher at the Eurasia Center of the Atlantic Council, said that if Prigozhin did not pay a heavy price, Putin’s regime is in grave danger.
In an analysis of the Wagner Group’s rebellion crisis, Whitmore identified a set of repercussions for that move, saying that Prigozhin’s rebellion must be seen from several contexts, including:
First: The war against Ukraine has divided the Russian elite into two factions, the “hawks” who only want to conquer Kiev, and the “kleptocrats” who want to return to the world before February 24, 2022, while the hawks are by far the strongest and most dangerous threat to the regime.
Second: Because political change comes to Russia when there are 4 factors: the divided elite, the dissatisfied public, and the absence of fear. If fear is removed from the equation, the regime will be in danger, just as the Russian elite is not behaving properly in this war.
Third: Russia’s unofficial regime has abandoned Prigozhin forever, as General Sergey Surovikin and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov disavowed him. It is also difficult to imagine another alleged ally standing by him at Putin’s expense.
Opportunity for extensive repairs
In turn, the researcher and specialist in Russian affairs, Samir Ayoub, believes in statements to “Sky News Arabia” that the recent crisis of the Wagner Group’s rebellion left various repercussions on the Russian scene, in several sectors, including:
- There are military repercussions to the crisis, but it can serve the Russian army and is considered positive, as the various military groups are operating under its umbrella and under its orders, especially since all those who remain from the Wagner Group are signing contracts to serve in the Russian army.
- More important is the political repercussions. There is no doubt that the class around President Putin could be affected by the rebellion, especially since it was surprising to everyone, including the Russian president himself.
- With regard to the issue of the military leadership, this rebellion, which put Russia for a day and a half before serious developments and unimaginable dangers, cannot pass, and therefore everyone is responsible for this crisis, including the Wagner Group, as well as the political class surrounding President Putin, in addition to the Defense Command. Russia, and everyone has to bear the responsibility and pay the price for that.
- In my personal opinion, there could be a “shake-up” for all the staff surrounding President Putin, in addition to the Russian Ministry of Defense, which could witness the resignations of a number of leaders and officials, so this situation can see its repercussions in the near future, and this confirms that President Putin’s position will become stronger than The previous stage, because the rebellion was a lesson he would learn from.
- Putin will find justification for getting rid of some of the leaders close to him, whether they are political or in the Ministry of Defense, and therefore, in my opinion, it was a serious case of rebellion, but the political solution achieved gave him a strong impetus and a greater stance from Russian society.
- He has an opportunity to take advantage of the crisis to bring about reforms for the Russian street, to deal with the crisis with the West, and to face the challenges facing Moscow, foremost of which is the blockade of sanctions and the repercussions of the war in Ukraine.
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