He Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives in North Korea this Tuesday in which it supposes first trip to the secretive Asian country in almost 25 years and certifies the strong bilateral rapprochement, a relationship that is however highly marked by secrecy, starting with the military exchanges agreed in 2023.
According to the criteria of
This is a two-day state visit to North Korea during which the signing of a strategic partnership agreement is expected. between both countries, whose alliance is perceived as a threat by the West.
Moscow and Pyongyang have been allies since the end of the Korean War (1950-1953), but have strengthened ties since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Russian President Vladimir Putin greets North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during his visit to Russia in September
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In fact, before leaving for North Korea, The Russian president welcomed North Korea’s “firm support” for its military operation in Ukraine.
“Russia has supported (North Korea) and its heroic people in their struggle to defend their right to choose for themselves the path of independence, originality and development in the confrontation with the cunning, dangerous and aggressive enemy (. ..) and will constantly support him in the future,” Putin wrote in a column published in the North Korean official newspaper Rodong Sinmun and the KCNA news agency.
He also stated that Pyongyang “firmly supports” the Russian offensive in Ukraine and thanked it for that.
Putin’s diplomatic advisor, Yuri Ushakov, presented the trip as an important event for both countries, hit by Western sanctions, and mentioned the “possible” signing of “a global strategic cooperation agreement.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum.
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The Russian leader will be accompanied by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Defense Minister Andrei Belousov.
This is the second visit to North Korea by the Russian leader, who last went almost a quarter of a century ago, shortly after coming to power.to meet with Kim Jong Un’s father, Kim Jong Il.
These are some keys about the visit that still raises several questions.
1. Exchanges at record levels between North Korea and Russia
This trip crowns a period in which the bilateral rapprochement has been tremendously intense, especially since Putin and Kim held a summit in September. in Russia in which it was agreed to cooperate militarily without the specific details of that pact being made known.
Pyongyang is known to have since transferred a record level of containers to Russia, and that due to their size and logistical route (their contents have ended up in areas near the front in Ukraine), they are probably weapons, specifically 152 or 122 millimeter artillery or ballistic missiles, according to fragments identified on the ground in areas attacked by Moscow.
In turn, the South Korean Ministry of Unification has indicated that in this first half of 2024 there have been 18 direct exchanges between officials from both countries, the same number as in all of 2019, just before Pyongyang decided to completely isolate itself from the world for three years. to prevent the entry of the coronavirus.
Pyongyang has transferred a record level of containers to Russia.
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2. New commercial circuit to circumvent sanctions
Just hours before landing, Putin himself announced in an editorial in the North Korean newspaper Rodong that Moscow and Pyongyang are going to establish “a reciprocal trade and payment system that is not controlled by the West.”
This mechanism, of which at the moment there are no more details, seeks to circumvent the network of sanctions with which, according to the Kremlin, Washington and its allies seek to pressure to all those who long for a “multipolar world order” that threatens American hegemony in the world.
In turn, the Kremlin stated that The visit may lead to the signing of a new basic treaty of bilateral relations that replaces those signed in 1961, 2000 and 2021 and forges a “comprehensive strategic alliance.”
Russia is looking for ways to continue avoiding the sanctions imposed by the West after the invasion of Ukraine.
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3. Arms cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang
Many analysts believe that Putin’s visit could serve to deepen military cooperation, something that may affect the security outlook in Ukraine and the Korean peninsula.
While there are doubts about the true industrial capacity of an impoverished country like North Korea to continue supplying weapons to Russia, Some fear that Moscow will transfer critical technology to Pyongyang that could further worsen the tense situation in Northeast Asia.
I don’t know what the North Koreans can get out of this. But what worries me? I worry first about nuclear weapons
“I don’t know what the North Koreans can get out of this. But what worries me? I worry first of all about nuclear weapons,” Robert Gallucci, who led the negotiations, said at the end of May at the Jeju Peace Forum. negotiations for the US in the 1990s so that North Korea would not abandon the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
“The Russians could give them information about the relationship between certain designs (of atomic bombs) and certain explosive yields,” he ventured, stressing that everything that Moscow decides to transfer in terms of technology is essential “to reduce the number of tests that the North Koreans need.” carry out”.
Putin’s visit may serve to deepen military cooperation, something that may affect the security landscape in Ukraine.
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Besides, Some voices raise doubts about Russia’s willingness to transfer major weapons, such as the South Korean Minister of Defense, Shin Won-sik, who in a recent interview indicated that Moscow would only bet on it “as a last resort” to “not lose its influence over Pyongyang.”
“I don’t think North Korea has much to offer Russia to convince it to resort to its last resort,” he added.
4. A red carpet for Vladimir Putin
Kim is expected to give Putin a grand welcome during his visit, which may include a large military parade in Pyongyang. since satellite images show the assembly of temporary structures in the central Kim Il-sung Square, the epicenter of all the large parades in the North Korean capital.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
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It is assumed that Kim will receive Putin at Sunan airport and that, with the hood removed, both greet the crowd on the way to the Russian president’s accommodation, something that has been done when the presidents of China and Cuba, Xi Jinping and Miguel Díaz-Canel, or the South Korean Moon Jae-in, who have visited Kim Jong-un.
Putin is also expected to stay at the luxurious Kumsusan Guest Palace, built in 2019 and used to house Xi when he visited North Korea that year.
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