This weekend, hours before the deadline to close the list of candidates for the presidential elections of July 28 in Venezuela, ten parties of the Venezuelan opposition bloc left behind long months of divisions and blockades to agree on the name of who, on their behalf, will challenge Nicolas Maduro who seeks a new re-election after 11 years in power.
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The MUD showed great capacity for mobilization in October when, in the primaries to choose its candidate, 2.5 million Venezuelans voted and elected, with 92.3 percent of the votes, María Corina Machado. The opposition leader was never able to register: an old and arbitrary inability was confirmed by the electoral authorities.
A month ago, the MUD tried to register another Corina, surnamed Yoris, a philosopher and Machado's fellow fighter, but the National Electoral Council (CNE) prevented it.
Finally, on April 2, The CNE allowed the registration of González Urrutia, convinced that the opposition would change that name before the deadline, this weekend. But, in the end, and largely because this registration already validated by the CNE gave certainty to his name, the former diplomat was confirmed by the bulk of the opposition bloc.
Who is Edmundo González Urrutia?
Born in 1949 in La Victoria, in the state of Aragua, 60 kilometers southwest of Caracas, he studied international studies at the Central University of Venezuela and, in 1981, obtained a master's degree at American University in Washington.
He is a discreet man, not fond of personal prominence, and of great intellectual and behavioral honesty.
Ten years later he fully joined the MUD, as an international representative, and at the beginning of this year he was elected president of the group. Analytical and very professional, “he is a discreet man, not fond of personal protagonism, and of great intellectual and behavioral honesty,” according to what a Colombian diplomat who knows him well told EL TIEMPO.
Under the endorsement of Machado, the opposition candidate rises in the polls against Maduro
“Venezuelans, we move forward,” Machado shouted with joy and conviction when announcing his support for González Urrutia, and the video of that statement spread through the mobile phones of millions of Venezuelans. “Edmundo for everyone” is the spontaneous slogan that began to flood the media and networks since Saturday afternoon.
Hours before, the pollster More Consulting had released a survey that indicated that Edmundo González, who will have the support of the charismatic Machado, would obtain 45.8 percent of the votes, against just 21.6 percent for Maduro.
Machado has enormous endorsement power and can transfer his millions of votes to González Urrutia
With the result of More Consulting, it is clear that Machado has enormous endorsement power and can transfer his millions of votes to González Urrutia. As political analyst Luis Peche Arteaga told the Madrid newspaper El País on Sunday, “Machado is the great decision-maker this year in Venezuelan politics.”
What is the reason for such solid and convincing leadership from González?
Isadora Zubillaga was, since 2019, ambassador in France of the interim government of Juan Guaidó, which the opposition and the international community tried to establish as an alternative to the Chavista regime, without success. For her, who has been a close collaborator of Machado for months, Several factors weigh on whether voters are willing to follow the route that the leader indicates to them..
Machado has identified with the desire of the vast majority of compatriots to remove Maduro from power, which differentiates her from the soft opposition that has claimed that it is possible to live with him remaining in the Miraflores palace.
“But also,” adds the former ambassador, “there is María Corina's reunification speech, in a country where not only society but also families and groups of friends are broken, and that moving speech has reached millions, the vast majority. , fathers and mothers who want to hug their children who are gone again.”
What is Nicolás Maduro going to do to stay in power in Venezuela?
Despite the legal solidity of the registration of González Urrutia's candidacy, which originates from the fact that it was already admitted by the CNE and that the legal period to challenge names legally expired on April 20, it is clear that If Maduro and his friends in the high courts and in the electoral authority decide to pull an untimely disqualification out of the hat, they will do so. Breaking the rules that the regime itself has established has never been a problem for Chavistas.
But, if Maduro and his allies made that move, it would be knowing the enormous international cost. The first thing is that The United States, which partially reestablished economic sanctions a few days ago in response to Machado's definitive disqualification, could give them another twist and make them even more severe. than they were before the lifting of these measures ordered in 2023 by President Joe Biden, in an attempt to promote dialogue between the government and the opposition.
Hence, some believe that the regime has no choice but to leave things as they are for now and bet everything on winning the elections, if this is the case with fraud.
The problem is that if the polls in favor of González Urrutia reach the level of very large advantage that Machado achieved over Maduro, the proportions of the fraud would have to be gigantic.
We must hope that the White House has learned its lesson, and now sets much more severe conditions to guarantee not only that González Urrutia is not disqualified, but that the July elections have effective international surveillance.
Apart from the government, the international community is also obliged to make a move. After the clumsiness that led the White House to trust Caracas until releasing the Colombian-Venezuelan Alex Saab, Maduro's business agent to violate the blockade and sanctions, Biden's team resolved to remove presidential advisor Juan Hernández, pointed out as a promoter of the commitment to detente with Maduro.
Speaking of Europe, governments like France, which have been very active in recent years in promoting a democratic solution in Venezuela, are also obliged to put pressure on Caracas.
The Chavistas fear the worst if they lose power, as they imagine that there would be a judicial revenge in which, surely, hundreds of high-ranking civil and military officials would be persecuted by Justice for matters of corruption and violation of human rights.
Hence The proposal of the president of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, to establish, perhaps through a plebiscite, guarantees for the candidate who is defeated in the July 28 elections can take flight. Petro discussed it with his Brazilian colleague Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at the summit they held last week in Bogotá, and then disclosed it.
In its editorial this Monday, the Venezuelan portal Analítico described the initiative as “an important signal” and recalled that María Corina Machado “has publicly told Maduro on more than one occasion that she is willing to talk with him about the guarantees that “They would award both the winner and the loser.” For Analytica, “it is a new path that is presented as a legal formula to unblock the game.” The weeks to come will tell if that is possible.
MAURICIO VARGAS – EL TIEMPO ANALYST – mvargaslina@hotmail / Instagram @mvargaslinares
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