Ukraine follows the escalation of war in Israel with concern because its future also depends on what happens in the Middle East. If Israel embarks on a months-long invasion of Gaza, or if a new war front opens in Lebanese territory, Kiev assumes that the supply of American weapons for its troops will be reduced and the offensive to recover the territory occupied by Russia will slow down even more. This situation would be a victory for Vladimir Putin that the United States will not allow, US President Joe Biden said in his speech this Thursday.
Biden has guaranteed that his Administration can deliver aid to Ukraine and Israel at the same time, and has committed to demanding from Congress an extraordinary amount of 60 billion dollars (almost 57 billion euros) of military assistance to Ukraine and 10,000 millions to Israel. The shipment of weapons to Taiwan also enters the equation. This allocation for Ukraine exceeds everything committed in military support by Washington in 20 months of war. The president’s order depends on the approval of the Republican majority in Congress, critical of the million-dollar support for the country invaded by Russia.
Biden’s intention to raise support for Ukraine will also face another problem: that the arms industry, operating today at full capacity, is not able to cover global demand.
NATO’s arsenal was already at its limit before the Hamas attacks that provoked Israel’s military reaction, the bombings in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, and the mobilization of 300,000 soldiers, armor and artillery ready to invade. Loop. Admiral Rob Bauer, head of NATO’s military committee, warned on October 4 at the Warsaw Security Forum that the Russian invasion had caught the countries of the Atlantic Alliance with their arsenals at half capacity, and that now stocks They are about to run out.
The head of the intelligence services of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Kirilo Budanov, admitted on October 12 in an interview with the newspaper Pravda that the risk for Ukraine is high: “If the conflict [en Israel y Gaza] “It has a limited time, no more than a few weeks, there is nothing to worry about, but if the situation drags on and becomes entrenched, there will be problems, for sure, because Ukraine will not be the only country in need of ammunition and weapons.”
Without the United States, the main supplier of weapons to kyiv, “Ukraine will lose the war.” This is how forceful the president, Volodymyr Zelensky, was during his visit to Washington on September 21. The threat at that time to his interests was Republican opposition in the United States Congress to maintaining the same pace of aid to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. A month later, the situation has become more complicated because the White House is now preparing to militarily assist its greatest ally in the Middle East. “There is a risk of suffering the consequences if international attention moves away from Ukraine,” Zelensky said on October 10 on France 2 television.
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In the days before Biden’s speech, several American media outlets published information with Pentagon sources warning that the challenge of increasing this aid will be difficult. CNN assured on October 11 that the United States military high command “is working around the clock to identify extra reserves of ammunition around the world to quickly transport them to Israel.” This is exactly what the US military was carrying out until a few days ago to support Ukraine. An article from The New Yorker on October 8 explained that Jake Sullivan, Biden’s National Security Advisor, has in his office a world map with all the possible arsenals that could be transferred to Ukraine.
That short-term priorities have changed would be demonstrated by information published this Thursday by the American digital media Axios: Last January it emerged in the press that Washington approved allocating to Ukraine 300,000 artillery shells that it has stored in Israel. The transfer has been suspended so that this ammunition can be used by the Israeli army, according to Axios.
Thomas S. Warrick, an analyst at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington, estimated in an Oct. 2 report that the United States has supplied two million artillery pieces to date. According to the BBC on October 5, 200 million bullets and grenades must be added to this. Despite figures that seem high, the needs of the Ukrainian army far exceed them. The Pentagon estimated last July, at the most intense moment of the counteroffensive, that the Ukrainian army was firing up to 3,000 artillery pieces daily along the entire front. Yevhen Dykyi, a military man and renowned Ukrainian analyst, raised consumption to 8,000 pieces a day in August, as he explained to the digital N.V.. The American arms industry is producing between 20,000 and 24,000 artillery shells monthly. Ukraine consumes the United States’ maximum monthly production of howitzers in three days. Douglas Bush, head of weapons acquisition for the US Army, detailed last August that the objective is to increase production in 2024 to 80,000 pieces per month.
The shortage of ammunition is such that Washington has authorized the shipment of anti-armor projectiles with depleted uranium and cluster bombs, weapons that are also used by Russia, but are prohibited in international treaties signed by numerous countries.
The Ukrainian government periodically insists that it needs more ammunition to gain more ground. The progress of the summer counteroffensive has been pyrrhic in the face of reinforced Russian defense lines. A recurring complaint of the Ukrainian military on the front is that they have to ration projectiles in the face of the abundance of Russian fire. Two units fighting in the Kupiansk sector (Kharkov province) illustrated to EL PAÍS last September that for every 10 howitzers their enemy fired, they could fire three. Dykyi stated in August that Ukraine needs to achieve at least an average of 10,000 artillery shells per day, which is the minimum used by the invading forces.
Israel, priority
Achieving this increase in supplies will now be more difficult. Mark F. Cancian, retired American colonel and analyst at the Center for International and Strategic Studies, stated in a study dated October 12 that “Israel will have priority because its relationship with the United States is closer and longer than that of Ukraine.” Pravda It also reported on October 18 that the German government had informed national arms companies that exports to Israel were now the priority. “Israel’s security is a reason of state for Germany,” said the chancellor. Olaf Scholz, before his visit to Tel Aviv on October 17. Germany is the second country that has given the most military support to Ukraine.
Cancian offered a detailed analysis of the weapons needs of Israel and Ukraine vis-à-vis the United States. The technology in which they can compete is, in a first offensive phase in Gaza, limited. The weapons that both countries urgently need are Stinger man-portable anti-aircraft missiles, Patriot air defense missiles, drones, anti-drone arsenal and repair components. Cancian warns that if the Israeli-Palestinian conflict drags on, “Ukraine may see how some systems necessary for its offensive may not be available in the quantities it would like.”
Ukraine has initiated an ambitious plan to reactivate its arms industry, but it is a program in its incipient phase and difficult to carry out while Russia has the capacity to bomb throughout its territory. The United States is not the only major arms donor to kyiv. The European Union has committed to delivering one million artillery shells in one year in 2023. NATO also has a new program since September to increase ammunition production for Ukraine by 2.4 billion euros. The United Kingdom, the third largest military donor, has delivered 300,000 projectiles so far during the war, but does not plan to significantly increase exports to Ukraine because its arsenal is at minimum levels.
In his analysis in early October in the Atlantic Council, Warrick concluded that the pace of arms production is far from what is necessary for Ukrainian troops to make much progress on the battlefield. “The offensive [ucrania] “It can continue in winter despite the weather conditions,” added on October 6 the Institute for the Study of War, a reference analysis group for the conflict in Ukraine, “but the pace of the offensive will depend on the supply of weapons, ammunition and non-lethal equipment [para protegerse del frío]”.
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