The president of the TSE (Superior Electoral Court), Alexandre de Moraes, determined on the night of this Thursday (13.out. Where (Administrative Council for Economic Defense) and by the Ministry of Justice (the latter served by the Federal Police) against research companies.
In the decision (intact – 83 KB), craft outletthat is, without the Court being provoked, Moraes states that the determinations of Cade and the PF:
- “constitute a clear usurpation of the competence of the SUPERIOR ELECTORAL TRIBUNAL to ensure the rigidity of the electoral process”;
- “are based solely on presumptions”;
- “they seem to demonstrate the intention to satisfy the electoral will expressed by the Chief Executive and candidate for reelection, which may, in theory, characterize misuse of purpose and abuse of power by its underwriters”.
Moraes also determined the investigation of possible abuse of political power. He mentioned the possibility of “deviation of purpose in the use of administrative bodies with the intention of favoring a certain candidacy, in addition to the crime of abuse of authority”.
UNDERSTAND THE CASE
On October 4, 2022, the Minister of Justice, Anderson Torres, sent a request to the PF (Federal Police) to open an investigation into the “action of polling institutes”.
At the twitterthe minister stated that the request “meets the representation” received by the Ministry of Justice “which pointed out ‘conducts that, in theory, characterize the practice of crimes perpetrated’ by some institutes”.
This Thursday (Oct 13), the president of CADE, Alexandre Cordeiro Macedo, determined the opening of an administrative inquiry against 3 research companies for possible “collusion” in the 2022 election period. The targets for trying “manipulate” the claim are: Datasheet, ipec (ex-Ibope) and the Ipespe.
Alexandre Cordeiro Macedo’s request was sent to Alexandre Barreto e Souza, CADE’s general superintendent. O Power 360 had access to the job. Here’s the intact of the document (2 MB).
Lamb wrote that the “errors were evidenced by the results of the polls counted”and that the polls had results “beyond the margins of error” of the withdrawals.
According to the president of CADE, who is linked to Ciro Nogueira (PP), Chief Minister of the Civil House and ally of Jair Bolsonaro (PL), the result of the polls in the 1st round of the presidential elections was “very different from that propagated by opinion research institutes”. Lamb suggested that errors are not “casuistic”, but intentional “through an orchestrated action by research institutes”.
ANALYSIS OF ELECTORAL SURVEYS
The president of CADE stated that he analyzed the performance of candidates in the presidential elections. He wrote that the vote on the former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (EN) was within the margin of error in 9 surveys. When considering the 95% confidence interval of the polls, it appears, according to him, that at least 10 other surveys would have mistaken the final result of the elections beyond the tolerance interval.
In the case of votes for the president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), Alexandre Cordeiro said that 18 studies were wrong, when considering the margin of error and the reliability of 95% of the studies. Only one would have been right.
“This type of evaluation demonstrates how there is a clear mismatch between the sample characteristics in relation to the population, which should prevent the expected extrapolation in inferential statistics from the characteristics of the sample (statistics) to the population (parameters)”wrote the president of CADE.
He said that when there is a lot of research that fails simultaneously and in the same direction, it is “unlikely” that there is an error as a result of “mere chance”.
ERROR AND MEGA-SENA
The president of Cade compares the errors of survey companies with the chances of winning the lottery.
“The chance of winning the Mega-Sena with a single bet of 6 numbers is 1 in 50 million. This chance is substantially greater than the probability of being 7 standard deviations away from a given mean, which would be 1 in 390 billion.”said. “The value that the research distorted, in some cases, was 11.96 standard deviations from the mean. Such a value would already be extremely unlikely and would represent the chance to win several times in the mega-sena”he added.
Lamb concluded that it is “unlikely” that the research sample was well designed. He indicated that there “several supposedly independent surveys”but which have the same type of error.
Cordeiro said that Ipec, Datafolha and Ipespe presented identical results in terms of the difference between the candidates, of 14%. “The errors were not random, they all converged in the same direction”declared.
Published article 36 of the Competition Defense Law:
- “A breach of the economic order, regardless of fault, constitutes acts in any form manifested, which have as their object or may produce the following effects, even if they are not achieved: I – limit, distort or in any way impair free competition or free started;”.
He stated that, in the face of “unlikely coincidence”it can be concluded that there are indications of alleged coordinated or collusive conduct of the 3 research companies.
He asked CADE’s General Superintendence to open an administrative inquiry. If the practice is proven, companies can also respond for crimes against the economic order, according to the official letter.
WHAT COMPANIES SAY
O Power 360 contacted Datafolha, Ipec and Ipespe to ask if they would comment on the request made by the president of Cade.
Ipec issued a note (intact – 227 KB) on the Thursday night when “vehemently repudiates actions based on theories that seek to confuse and induce society to disinformation”. It also states that it operates independently and without ties to another economic group or other research company.
Here is the full text of the Ipec note:
“Ipec further regrets this initiative against polling institutes, which only fulfill their role of measuring voters’ voting intentions, based on scientific criteria and information collected at the time the polls are carried out. The variations between polls and the results of the polls in the 1st round of the presidential election coincide in almost all institutes only demonstrate the adoption of statistical principles and models that support the research activity. In addition, Ipec is a privately held company that operates independently, with no connection whatsoever with any economic group or any other research company, basing its professional and business conduct on ethical principles, which is why IPEC vehemently repudiates actions based on theories that want to confuse and induce society to disinformation, with the clear purpose of destabilizing the progress of research activities.”
There was no response from Datafolha and Ipespe until the publication of this text. The space remains open. In the event of protests, the report will be updated.
WHO IS ALEXANDRE CORDEIRO?
Alexandre Cordeiro was appointed president of CADE in July 2021. He is linked to the Chief Minister of the Civil House, Ciro Nogueira (PP).
Before, he served as the body’s general superintendent since 2017, after being appointed by the then president, Michel Temer.
At the time, Cordeiro and the current general superintendent of CADE, Alexandre Barreto, exchanged seats.
Cordeiro holds a degree in economics and law, a master’s degree in Constitution and society, and a doctorate in law. In addition to CADE, he has worked at the STJ (Superior Court of Justice), at the CGU (General Controllership of the Union), at Trensurb (Companhia Brasileira de Trens Urbanos de Porto Alegre), at the Ministry of Cities and at the Federal Senate.
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