Tourism in Italy: a CRIF study shows how the default rate in the sector is stable at around 4%, but will grow by the end of 2024
With the arrival of August, the summer season comes into full swing for the tourism businessesa very important sector for the Italian economy and which includes restaurants, bars, hotels and travel agencies. Starting from the end of 2022 the industry default rate it has been maintained stable around 4%highlighting the riskiness of the sector above average of Italian joint-stock companies. Furthermore, the amounts of financing granted to companies in the sector are slightly decreasing, while on the commercial payments front the number of companies that pay with serious delay is increasing.
These are some of the main findings that emerged from a study conducted by CRIF which, thanks to its ecosystem of aggregated data, photographs the characteristics of the Italian tourism sector, analyzing in particular the trend of credit in terms of disbursements and riskiness and the performance of companies from the point of view of commercial payments. “In recent years, companies in the tourism sector have seen asignificant growth in turnoverbenefiting from the increase in both domestic and foreign tourist flows. Despite this positive phenomenon, at the level of credit risk the sector is positioned at above-average levels, reflecting a context of highly competitive market and one uncertain macroeconomic scenario and complex both at the national and global level. The latter will continue to influence the riskiness of the sector also in the 2024with default rates expected to rise by the end of the year,” comments Luca D’Amico, CEO of CRIF Ratings.
Credit risk
TO end of 2023 tourism recorded a default rate of 4.1% for joint-stock companies, stable compared to the previous period, even if among the highest, confirming itself one of the riskiest sectors (the average rate for Italian joint-stock companies is 2.6%). For the end of 2024, the default rate is estimated by CRIF Ratings further growing, with a increase of around 1.2/1.3 percentage points compared to 2023, demonstrating the persistence of elements of fragility. The outlook takes into account a context of instability at global levelwhich continues to be weighed down by conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, interest rates still at high levels although slightly decreasing, as well as uncertainties in terms of the political and economic trajectory in China and the US elections.
The trend of credit granted
The analyses carried out by CRIF, based on the information assets of the Credit Information System EURISCshow how in the first quarter of 2024 the amounts of financing granted to joint-stock companies in the tourism sector are slightly decreasing (-1.4%) compared to the same period of the previous year, even if the decrease is less than that recorded by all Italian joint-stock companies (-3.6%). The dynamics of disbursements to the sector are affected by the persistence of interest rates at high levelsthe first signs of reduction of which were observed only in June 2024 (-25 basis points by the ECB).
Commercial Payments Performance
The data from the 2024 Payment Study by CRIBIS (a CRIF group company specializing in business information) reveal the financial behavior of the Italian tourism sector towards payments to its suppliers. In particular, the tourism sector suffers the most compared to the average of Italian companies. In fact, in June 2024, punctual payers in Italy represent 39.9% of the total, while payments with more than 30 days delay reach 9.5%. Compared to the Italian average, tourism record fewer punctual payers (20%) and a higher number of seriously late payers (17.4%). It should be noted that the sector is characterised by seasonality themes that impact performance. Within the tourism sector, the greatest critical issues are highlighted by Restaurants and Bars that present punctual payments in only 17.7% of cases (compared to approximately 28.7% found in Travel Agencies and Hotels) and delays of more than 30 days in 19.4% of cases (a percentage more than double that observed in Travel Agencies and Hotels).
The scenario of Italian tourism companies
The tourism sector counts in Italy over 400 thousand businessesdivided between travel agencies (about 12,300 companies), restaurants and bars (about 321,400 companies) and hotels (66,600 companies). 97% are distributed between catering and hospitality. 41% are Individual Companies, followed by Capital Companies (33%) and Partnerships (25%). Just over a third of tourism companies are concentrated in Noon and in the Islandsin confirmation of the great importance of these territories to drive the sectorThe region with the highest presence is the Lombardy (13.5%), followed by Lazio (11%) and Campania (10.3%).
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