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Many people are looking forward to the summer weather, but it is still a long way off. According to weather experts, two extremes are possible.
Munich – The weather in 2024 has been extremely changeable so far, with a tendency towards extremes. For example, February was already warmer than a typical March. Spring, on the other hand, was rather cold and rainy, and summer weather has so far failed to materialize, although early summer should have started long ago. Anyone who is eagerly awaiting summer weather is probably wondering how long the gloomy weather will last. IPPEN.MEDIA asked three experts for a forecast for the summer and received some drastic predictions – we could be in for an extreme summer.
Instead of sunshine, Germany is likely to face a “severe summer of floods and/or storms”
Instead of sunshine and mild temperatures, many regions have only had rainy weather. In some parts of Germany there was even a flood alert. The situation has calmed down somewhat since then, but it is still better to keep an eye on the situation. According to meteorologist Dominik Jung from wetter.net it will continue to be rainy.
When asked, he said: “It doesn’t look like it’s going to be very hot…but it’s going to be significantly wetter in some regions. There are some indications that the current weather situation will continue, lots of humidity…moderately warm, frequent storms and thunderstorms and flooding. Germany could be facing a severe summer of flooding and/or storms.” There could be hot days, but it is not yet possible to predict what temperatures will be reached.
Heat waves and extreme rainfall possible – Summer 2024 in Germany
His forecast for the summer partly agrees with that of weather and climate expert Frank Böttcher, who runs the website boettcher.science. Upon request from IPPEN.MEDIA he explains: “The water temperatures in the seas around Central Europe, which are already far too high, and the extreme heat developing in North Africa indicate that we must expect severe heat waves in Europe this summer.” Another weather expert even fears a “hellish summer of the millennium” for Europe.
But Böttcher also agrees with Jung on another point – heavy rainfall is still possible. “At the same time, the high water temperatures also increase evaporation and thus the risk of further extreme rainfall.” For example, there is currently severe storm chaos on Mallorca due to torrential rain.
The DWD’s weather forecast is more relaxed: “normal to warmer summer”
The seasonal forecast of the German Weather Service (DWD), on the other hand, is significantly less extreme. The weather experts expect a “moderate probability for a normal to warmer summer compared to the same 3-month average in the period 1991 – 2020.” This puts the seasonal climate forecast for summer 2024 in the middle range.
For late summer, there is even a slight tendency toward higher temperatures than the monthly average. The DWD does not write about possible extreme weather or an increased probability of rain. But it does point out that the quality of the weather forecasts varies and deviations can occur. At least according to the 100-year calendar forecast for summer 2024, the weather will be quite nice and dry. (kiba)
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