Climate activists and scientists have long warned of the consequences of climate change. According to experts, important tipping points could soon be reached.
Exeter – Melting ice sheets, dying coral reefs or thawing permafrost – the consequences of climate change are extensive. Scientists and climate activists have been warning of the consequences for years. Once the damage has reached a certain level, the development is irreversible. That point could soon be reached.
Analysis by climate researchers shows: Four irreversible tipping points reached by 2030
An analysis by international climate researchers came to the conclusion that four tipping points for the global climate will be reached by 2030. Two of these tipping points concern the Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, respectively. Exceeding this threshold could result in the ice sheets continuing to melt even if the temperature on Earth stops rising. This was reported by a research team from the University of Exeter in the UK in the journal Science.
In 2008, a research group named tipping points for the global climate for the first time. They defined tipping points as “a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively change the state or evolution of a system”. For example, if a glacier loses altitude as it melts, its surface is exposed to even lower, warmer layers of air, which accelerates its melting even more. Beyond the tipping point, feedback processes can ensure that development becomes unstoppable.
Despite the 1.5 degree target: climate tipping points unstoppable by 2030
Since 2008, more than 200 studies on the topic of “tipping points” have been published. Based on this, the group of international climate researchers was able to create an updated model of the climate tipping points. They identified nine tipping points relevant to global climate and seven tipping points that have broader regional impacts.
The researchers came to the conclusion that when global warming reaches an average of 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial age, four tipping points will be reached: the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the dying of tropical coral reefs and the thawing of the permafrost. Already, global warming is four times faster in the Arctic than in the rest of the world.
Climate targets: Political measures are not enough – limitation is only enough for 2.6 degrees
Based on developments in recent years, they predict that 1.5 degrees will become reality as early as 2030. If all the measures currently planned by politicians were implemented, the global temperature could be limited to a rise of 1.95 degrees by 2100. However, measures introduced so far would only limit warming to 2.6 degrees.
As global warming approaches two degrees, further tipping points become possible: mountain glaciers outside the polar regions could melt and the boreal coniferous forest in the southern distribution area could die off. However, the changes in the Gulf Stream, which ensures mild temperatures in Europe, are particularly relevant for Europe: According to the researchers, a collapse of a Gulf Stream branch south of Greenland is becoming increasingly likely, which will also affect the entire overturning circulation. (sf/dpa)
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