The militancy roared enthusiastically this Friday at the entrance of Pedro Sánchez and Salvador Illa in the Vall D’Hebron pavilion in Barcelona, embedded in a working-class neighborhood that has always been a talisman for the socialists. But among the leaders, in the first rows, among whom are almost all the protagonists of the past and present history of the PSC, there is a mix of excitement at the possibility of a historic result for their candidate and a cold sweat in the face of a unexpected rise of Junts in the final stretch, which could greatly complicate not only governability in Catalonia, but Sánchez’s legislature.
A very grown Junts with a very weakened ERC is a very delicate scenario for the Government, several of its members admit, although they all insist that no one can overthrow Sánchez – a motion of censure is unfeasible – and the independentistas, who still do not have the amnesty and it could take time to have it completely because the PP will try to stop it in the courts, they need the Government as much as the Executive needs them. “We are all much more intertwined than we think. The Catalans will not forgive anyone who is guilty of bringing the PP and Vox with the permanent 155,” says a person trusted by Sánchez. One fact is enough: according to the survey by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), 55.7% of ERC voters and 57.3% of Junts voters want Sánchez to be president, compared to 1.4% and 2.9% of those who support those two parties who would prefer the popular leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo.
The independentists consulted, both from Junts and ERC, insist that Sánchez’s legislature is not at stake, because the decision to support it is strategic. But the price can change. Budget negotiations with the grown independentists would put on the table the complete collection of taxes in Catalonia, in the Basque style, both parties claim.
In the Government they believe that in the end Junts will not go as strong as the independentistas believe, who even talk of a tie with the PSC, but they are worried that Puigdemont’s people will beat ERC very clearly due to the political message that the voters send. “It is not good news that Catalans do not prefer the most reasonable option,” admits a member of the Government. Even so, several of those consulted on both sides at the highest level insist: in all the conversations, including those held in Switzerland, it has been very clear that the negotiation, the dialogue tables and, therefore, the legislature continue Go ahead no matter what happens in the Catalans.
In ERC they do not quite understand how it is possible that Junts can recover like this after leaving the Catalan Government. “The big question is why throughout Spain they see clearly that [Oriol] Junqueras ate four years in prison and Carles Puigdemont did not, and therefore who assumed the greatest personal cost, but in Catalonia, a part of the independence movement does not see it that way and believes that ERC is the traitor and the soft one,” admits a leader. . The big question, also for the stability of the legislature, is what will happen in Junts and ERC after the elections. Will Puigdemont resign if he fails to govern, as he has promised? Will Pere Aragonés be held responsible for the possible fiasco?
While the socialists were living their dream night in Vall D’Hebron with the possibility that Illa would sweep beyond 40 seats and could even dream of governing if the victory was very resounding, but also with fear of an unexpected mobilization of the independence movement that would burst Sánchez’s story, in Bellvitge (L’Hospitalet de Llobregat), another working-class neighborhood that is also very socialist where the PP is trying to find its place, Feijóo and the PP candidate, Alejandro Fernández, also showed enthusiasm for recovering their space. “We are going from ninth to fourth, we are the first after the big three who have governed, that is already a success,” they point out in the PP. In the party of Genoa they suffer a cold sweat even worse than that of the socialists at the possibility of Vox winning the game in a decisive land, without which it is almost impossible to govern, as was demonstrated on June 23.
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“With a more emotional vote and less management like that of Catalonia, where the PP is not in the equation to govern, it is logical that Vox is more competitive, but we are going to beat them without problems,” they conclude in the PP. For Santiago Abascal, leader of Vox, it will also be an important night. A victory, even a minimal one, against the PP would refute the established feeling, especially among the popular ones, that the far-right have begun an unstoppable decline.
In fact, one of the most unforeseen situations of this campaign is that war that Feijóo has entered into with Vox in the harshest speech against immigration, directly linking it to insecurity. On the contrary, at the Vall D`Hebron rally, Sánchez received two very clear applauses: one when he said: “I know what the price has to be paid but of course it is worth it”, thus making it clear that his threat of resignation, and another when he pointed out that Spain is an “open, tolerant, supportive country, and immigrants help us grow, consolidate employment, take care of public services, take care of our elderly dependents.”
The PP, which in the Basque campaign barely talked about ETA and Bildu, in the Catalan campaign has barely talked about the amnesty, in a surprising turn that shows that the Madrid pot is very different from the rest of Spain. However, the popular ones are preparing a European campaign focused on the amnesty, which will come out of the Senate next week, and they will return to the axis of the plebiscite for Sánchez. Meanwhile, the socialists are delighted with this latest turn to the right by Feijóo in Catalonia, which adds to the “concord” laws rejected by the UN rapporteurs that Sánchez plans to exploit to the maximum in the European ones. The PP will try again for a plebiscite on Sánchez, and the PSOE and Sumar will try to mobilize the left in the face of the rise of the extreme right and an increasingly closer right in some positions.
Yolanda Díaz, leader of Sumar, also did her best at the closing of the campaign in Barcelona to try to stop the fall that the polls predict for her allies in the Commons and thus avoid that feeling that has been installed after the Galician and Basque elections in that its space is in clear electoral decline. Sumar is putting pressure on the PSOE to activate the main measures agreed upon in the coalition as soon as possible and start the legislature with force without waiting for the long electoral process to end with three elections in three months.
All national parties are focused on Catalonia. Each has its own risks and hopes. The one with the most at stake is Sánchez, who needs to shore up his legislature. But no one is immune to Catalan vertigo, which never leaves anyone indifferent. In 2021 it was an injection of morale for Sánchez, who was emerging from the pandemic and saw how Illa, the most visible face of the fight against covid, triumphed. On the contrary, for Pablo Casado the PP fiasco was the beginning of the end, which would come a year later. Catalonia decides the national board more than ever. It is possible that it will not even be clear what the consequences will be on election night itself. But no one doubts that this Sunday, despite the fact that the sun and the heat in Catalonia invite people to go to the beach – the lack of electoral atmosphere that is perceived in Barcelona is very shocking – the Catalans who decide to go to vote will mark the future of the legislature and the resistance of the delicate, but at the moment stable, majority with which Sánchez governs.
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