Security of maintenance | Would Finland run out of food if we were embargoed? At least the salmon could run out on the plate

World trade coughs as a result of the aftermath of the corona pandemic and the war in Ukraine. But what would happen to Finland's food supply if foreign trade stopped?

Rice, salmon and protein feed would run out pretty quickly, but many products would be enough from our own back, as long as the production chains were put in order, says a specialist researcher at the Finnish Natural Resources Agency Csaba Jansik In the exam of Tiede magazine.

Which foodstuffs could we manage with our own production?

For the most important products, such as grain, milk and eggs, Finland's self-sufficiency rate is over one hundred percent.

Tomato's self-sufficiency rate is 60 percent, cucumber 93 percent, and strawberry and potato products about two-thirds. When it comes to fresh potatoes, we are completely self-sufficient.

With the current production volumes, there would be no shortage of meat products either. The self-sufficiency rate for chicken meat is 94 percent, for beef 88 percent, and for pork slightly over one hundred.

So everything would be fine, even if there was no replenishment from abroad?

Unfortunately, it's not like that at all. We would have a shortage of several other products.

The total self-sufficiency rate of complementary protein feeds, such as canola, canola, legumes and soy, is only a quarter. The goal is to bring domestic production of these to a level where imports could be significantly reduced.

There would also be a somewhat confusing shortage of fish. Its self-sufficiency rate is only one third in the land of thousands of lakes. Imported Norwegian salmon is a key food source for us.

If there was a shortage of feed, would switching to a vegan diet help?

Without meat here, you'd be hungry, at least at first.

Finns eat a variety of meat substitutes, such as rolled oats or beef, on average about a kilo per year, while meat is eaten per capita at 77 kilos.

With milk, the situation is a little better. When about 107 liters of milk are consumed per person per year, seven liters of various milk substitutes are consumed.

You should also remember that soy, perceived as an easy source of protein, is imported.

So, in theory, a change from a meat diet to a vegetarian diet could help, but it would require quite large investments in processing and a big change in the whole food culture.

And what about lake fish?

Lake fish are a largely untapped resource, from which we could get much more out of than we currently do.

Here, too, the problem is the lack of a production chain: we only have a few hundred professional fishermen. Fish farming, on the other hand, is restrained by strict environmental permits. A quick response would be needed to get fish from the lakes to people's tables.

Are the biggest problems to be found in production chains?

Yes, you could say that. Although we are self-sufficient in terms of grain, for example, we are not in terms of fertilizers used in cultivation, plant protection agents or even all plant seeds.

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If foreign trade stopped, the lack of fertilizers would weaken crops. There would also be a shortage of spare parts for agricultural machinery.

We live in a networked world, and food production is by no means isolated from the rest of the world. If, for example, the supply of fuel stopped, it would quickly show up as transportation difficulties. Problems could also be caused by the supply of spare parts, because a large part of the farm's tractors, machines and equipment are foreign.

Part of the agricultural sector, for example berry farming, uses a lot of foreign labor. If they were not sent to the country, the Finns would have to do the same work, or the harvest would not be harvested.

How long would it take for us to starve in the embargo?

First of all, it must be stated right away that the scenario of a total embargo is very unlikely. But if that were to happen, maybe you wouldn't starve to death here. Of course, crops would decline due to a lack of fertilizers, meat production could decrease drastically, and much more labor would be needed in the production chain. But if you had to, wouldn't you find an emergency way?

Adapting to milder scenarios would certainly be easier. For example, the war in Ukraine has practically stopped the import of energy and ammonia from Russia and prevented Ukrainian men from coming to Finland for seasonal work. Still, it's worked out.

Otherwise, our situation is very good when viewed internationally. The Economist compared last year in the Global Food Security Index, the food production self-sufficiency of 113 countries was reduced by 68 indicators. Finland was number one in the whole world.

Published in Tiede magazine 10/2023