Around him, Spanish politics is on fire, but in the Council of Ministers everything is apparently normal. This Tuesday, a day after Yolanda Díaz announced that she is leaving the leadership of Sumar and that the union of the independentists to form the Parliament table has triggered speculation about a repeat election in Catalonia in the fall and even an advance of the generals on the same date, it was very calm. Pedro Sánchez, traveling in Jordan, was not there—María Jesús Montero presided—but Díaz was, who conveyed absolute calm. The president, the second vice president and his teams have conspired to protect the coalition and the Government against the crisis in Sumar, according to various sources in the Executive. Both the ministers of the PSOE and those of Sumar have made efforts in recent hours so that the internal conflict that has led Díaz to resign from the leadership of Sumar after the poor results in the European elections does not contaminate the Government.
The press conference after the Council of Ministers was an example of this effort, with two ministers from the PSOE —Teresa Ribera and Pilar Alegría— and two from Sumar —Ernest Urtasun and Pablo Bustinduy— showing harmony, minimizing the real effects of the decision of Yolanda Díaz and guaranteeing that the legislature will continue. And this Wednesday that message of continuity, that nothing has happened here and the Government is moving forward with the only great uncertainty of what will happen in Catalonia, will be reinforced with the presence of Sánchez and Díaz in the control session of Congress and with a interview that the president gave to TVE just after that intersection in the San Jerónimo race with Alberto Núñez Feijóo, at 10 in the morning.
Sánchez and Díaz thus intend to resume the political initiative as soon as possible and accelerate the star projects they have planned, among them the democratic regeneration plan that the president promised for when the European elections were over, and in the case of the vice president, the reform of the Statute. of Workers to reduce working hours for the first time since 1983.
Both also have a very relevant decision pending, that is, what they do to unblock the General Council of the Judiciary. Moncloa was waiting for the European elections to happen to see if Feijóo finally decided to renew. But there is less and less hope, given the tone of the opposition leader, who insists on asking for an advance of the general elections when there are still three years of the legislature. Díaz is very clear about the solution: she defends changing the law to reduce the majorities and renew the CGPJ without the PP. Sánchez has doubts about this solution, which was criticized by the European Commission, and Félix Bolaños is working on alternative formulas. But in any case there will be a last attempt at negotiation with the PP and then a decision will be made for the Congressional groups to promote a reform, possibly in July, according to Executive sources. In any case, the decision does not seem closed and Sánchez has the last word. At the moment it seems that he will open the door to the PP again to see if there is any movement.
Sánchez and Díaz want to resume the initiative as soon as possible, although they have the major problem of instability in Catalonia, the complex ecosystem in which two key partners of the Government live, Junts and ERC, in theory irreconcilable enemies, but who have just reached an agreement to give control of the Parliament table to Junts. This decision has triggered all speculation that Carles Puigdemont will use the power that ERC has given him—he resigned from the presidency offered by the PSC—to try to force an electoral repetition, which seems to be his main objective.
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Various ministers consulted continue to think, despite everything, that logic says that ERC is not interested in a repeat election – it would arrive without a clear candidate, because Oriol Junqueras will not be able to present himself while the preliminary questions that will undoubtedly be raised regarding the amnesty law, with the party in the middle of an internal war and with a congress in November—and, therefore, at some point it will accept reality and allow Salvador Illa to be elected president, although this means that a part of the independence movement harshly criticizes them. But no one in the Government has real information about what is being brewed there and there is no certainty either. A repeat election in Catalonia would make the 2025 Budgets almost unviable this year, which are already very complicated even if a government is formed in this community. And again the speculation about the advance of the general elections would return.
The scenario seems very complex, almost impossible, even for a progressive coalition that has managed to overcome very difficult situations. But in La Moncloa they continue to insist that these European elections, in which they believe that Feijóo has lost the plebiscite he proposed against Sánchez, were the last cartridge for the opposition and now they are two years ahead to do politics and management calmly. Spokesperson Alegría was very clear: “In no way is there going to be an electoral advance. I am very sorry, but whoever waves the election flag should abandon all hope. Mr. Feijóo, wait seated, there are three years ahead and we are going to dedicate ourselves to what is important,” she launched. Sumar’s ministers also spoke along the same lines. Urtasun was clear: “Our priority is to continue governing. Anyone who expects instability in the Government is wrong, we are going to continue deploying the coalition agreement. According to the IMF, one million workers have been lifted out of poverty in Spain due to the increase in the minimum wage. “We work to help people.” Bustinduy insisted: “our conviction and our commitment to the Government is seen today, in the projects that we are presenting [Urtasun la ley del cine y Bustinduy un ambicioso plan con 1.300 millones para cambiar el modelo de los cuidados y pasar de enviar a los ancianos a las residencias a atenderlos en sus casas, como desean el 90% de ellos]. Our commitment is to continue working to improve people’s living conditions. “This is how we respond with facts to any doubt or suspicion.” Urtasun was in charge of explaining that in reality Díaz’s decision does not change anything substantial, because he continues to lead the Sumar sector in the Government and continues to direct the parliamentary group, the two most important instruments. “We maintain the maximum institutional stability of the government, of the parliamentary group, this government has a lot to do.
The socialist sector of the Government, now that Díaz has shown an evident weak flank, seems determined to strengthen the coalition and take care of its partners, aware that without them there is no Government or majority. Several socialist ministers consulted believe that Sumar now has a lot of time ahead of him – three years if the legislature runs out – to regroup and find a formula that unites all the groups to the left of the PSOE. Alegría was especially kind when talking about the second vice president’s decision to leave Sumar’s leadership. “With these decisions, a democratic culture is manifested that is usually linked to left-wing parties. Reflection processes are opened, readings are done, and these processes usually open strengthening phases. Unlike others who hide their pacts and even their electoral programs,” she concluded in reference to the PP. In the corridors of the Senate, María Jesús Montero compared the situation with the moment when Díaz was appointed by Pablo Iglesias as head of Unidas Podemos in the Government, and Sánchez’s interlocutor, but she did not have any organic position in the Unidas Podemos coalition. Everyone minimizes, therefore, the real impact of Díaz’s decision, and conspires to continue as if nothing had happened and try to get the legislature back on track to begin to escape the feeling of paralysis of recent months.
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