A researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute assesses the possible effects of Wednesday’s events on Russia and the war.
of the Wagner mercenary group of the founder Yevgeny Prigozhin frequently used aircraft fell to the ground on Wednesday. All ten people on board died.
Prigozhin’s name was on the passenger list of the flight.
Researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Kristiina Silvani according to the biggest question is under what conditions the plane fell. Silva was interviewed before Russian officials confirmed that Prigozhin was on the crashed plane.
“According to some claims the plane was shot down, some say not. Now big speculations are starting about who is behind this accident,” says Silvan.
With the Gray Zone associated with Wagner On the Telegram channel it was claimed on Wednesday evening that based on the information it had received it appeared that the plane had been shot down.
Russian Telegram channel Bazan on the other hand, the sources say that the crew of the crashed plane did not report any emergency before it crashed. According to the channel, this would indicate a critical situation that happened very suddenly.
Silvan estimates that even if the authorities say that the accident was caused by a technical fault, hardly anyone believes it. At the same time, Silvan reminds us that accidents can always happen.
Essential there is also how Russia will react if Prigozh is found dead. Silvan compares the situation to the Wagner uprising at the end of June.
“In the end, there were no major consequences from the Moscow march, at least not yet. When it didn’t result in a big movement, it’s unlikely that this will either,” Silvan assesses.
Silvan points out that Prigozhin seemed to have escaped the rebellion and its aftermath with very little.
If the most likely option is starting to look like it was the president of Russia who crashed the plane Vladimir Putin plot, according to Silvan, it would be more in line with people’s expectations.
“We know that Putin takes things like this seriously [kapinat], and he called Prigožin a traitor. The fact that the betrayal would have gone without consequences would have been more surprising”.
According to Silvan, it is possible that this is Putin’s demonstration of his own power. Silvan also reminds that Putin could not legally order the shooting down of the plane.
“This goes to the side of speculation, but it would be a rather spectacular way to get rid of someone instead of him disappearing into the sky. If Prigozhin has been on board”.
Silvan also points out that Prigozhin has a lot of enemies.
“If it is not an accident, Putin is not the only one who can be behind the act. Many may believe that they will benefit from the murder of Prigozhin”.
For example, the Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu is titled Prigožin arch enemy.
Silvan does not think that the plane crash will affect Ukraine or the course of the war of aggression started by Russia very much.
“At this point, it’s really early to say how this will be reacted to and whether there will be any next turn at all,” Silvan assesses.
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