Polls on the Austrian election show a neck-and-neck race between the ÖVP and FPÖ. The SPÖ hopes that the numbers are wrong and that it will unexpectedly win.
Vienna – On Sunday the time has come: the Austrian election in 2024 promises to be exciting. The current polls predict a close race between the right-wing FPÖ and the conservative ÖVP. The SPÖ is a distant third in polls for the National Council election in Austria. But how reliable are the forecasts for the National Council election? The SPÖ leader Andreas Babler in particular had repeatedly questioned the current surveys.
According to experts, surveys for the Austrian election in 2024 are “astonishingly accurate”
In any case, political scientist Laurenz Ennser-DENASTIK gives the all-clear: From a historical perspective, the polls for the National Council election are “astonishingly accurate,” the expert told the standard. According to his analysis, the surveys usually only deviate from the mean by one and a half percentage points.
“Surveys are more accurate in federal elections than in smaller regions. It is easier to create a representative sample of respondents,” says Ennser-DENASTIK. The surveys are mostly within the “fluctuation range”, which is between 3 and 3.5 percent for the National Council election.
Close race between FPÖ and ÖVP before the Austrian election – SPÖ only in third place
According to the last surveys before the Austrian election, the FPÖ is at around 26 percent. Close behind is the ÖVP at 25 percent, with the SPÖ slightly behind in third place with 21 percent. Nevertheless, SPÖ party leader Babler is apparently hoping for the unlikely victory of the Austrian Social Democratic Party.
Since the European elections were only a few months ago, they provide a reference value for evaluating the surveys. In the European elections, the ÖVP performed better than expected, whereas the FPÖ weakened somewhat, according to the Austrian daily newspaper courier writes.
Source: Austria Press Agency, as of September 26th
Open questions before the Austrian election: Can the ÖVP and SPÖ still catch up with the FPÖ’s lead?
Political scientist Ennser-Wienastik says: “The big question is whether things will now turn around again. We know that the ÖVP traditionally mobilizes strongly in European elections and the Eurosceptic FPÖ tends not to. At the same time, however, voters tend to rally behind the leaders during extreme events such as the flood disaster. That should help as Chancellor Karl Nehammer (ÖVP).”
There could also be an “under-declaration” among ÖVP sympathizers at the moment, as David Pfarrhofer from the Market Institute says. Specifically, this means that some voters who will vote for the ÖVP on Sunday have not yet committed themselves to the party. That could confuse the polls again. In particular, the corruption scandals involving former Chancellor Sebastian Kurz caused considerable damage to the ÖVP.
Surveys can never predict the election result one-to-one. But history has shown that the direction has always been right. This means that first place for the SPÖ on Sunday would not be ruled out – but it would be relatively unlikely. (sir)
#Rejected #polls #Austrian #election #SPÖ #hoping #surprise