Power centers have formed around Putin, competing for his favor and recognition. Wagner boss Prigozhin and Commander-in-Chief Gerasimov are at the forefront.
Munich – It’s no secret that Vladimir Putin imagined the attack against Ukraine differently. Instead of a quick capture of Kiev, the war in Ukraine has been going on for almost a year. What Putin saw as the failure of his army led to an internal power struggle. Again and again he draws personal consequences, and a rivalry developed between his most important men. Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin and Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov oppose the new supreme commander of the Russian army in Ukraine, Valery Gerasimov. Putin’s personal Game of Thrones has flared up.
Putin’s Personal Game of Thrones: Rivalries Between His Most Important Men
The dispute between Putin’s confidants is primarily about the favor of the Russian president. One point of contention is the commander’s position over Russian forces in Ukraine. Army General Sergey Surovikin was replaced by Valery Gerasimov in January 2023 after just three months. Gerasimov is the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and since the changeover he has been the supreme commander of the Russian troops in the Ukraine war. Putin wants to achieve an improvement in warfare with the change. Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has repeatedly suffered heavy losses.
Not only Putin is dissatisfied with the Russian conduct of the war. Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner mercenary group known for its brutal warfare in Ukraine, is also unhappy. One of his allies is Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov, also known as “Putin’s bloodhound”. Next to Pirogschin’s Wagner soldiers should be loud Vice Kadyrov also sent fighters to Ukraine. Both Putin men are also considered rivals of Gerasimov. And the Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is not exactly in the favor of the Wagner boss.
Building power centers: access to Putin and his favor “the only thing that matters”
In the war in Ukraine, it is precisely these men who are close to Putin. At the same time, the competition between Prigozhin and Kadyrov against Gerasimov is growing. They all want Putin’s approval. This dispute may remind one or the other of the series “Game of Thrones”. Because like the different houses in the series, Gerasimov, Shoigu, Prigozhin and Kadyrov are all about power. Above all, Prigozhin is playing an increasingly important role in the war against Ukraine. It was not until Thursday (January 19) that he made his Wagner soldiers responsible for progress in Bachmut.
“Putin designed a system where access to him and his favor is the only thing that matters,” said a NATO military intelligence officer who asked not to be named Vice. “So rivals create power centers to influence Putin, who himself has to make other people take the blame for the catastrophic performance of the Russian system,” the NATO officer said.
Putin’s “Plan”: Shoigu and Gerasimov face off against Prigozhin and Kadyrov
Putin’s machinations are becoming increasingly difficult to understand. In Ukraine he hardly gets any further. Gerasimov is the fourth in his position. “Gerasimov and Shoigu are now in a direct line of fire, and Kadyrov, and especially Prigozhin, are waiting to see if they stumble,” analyzed the NATO officer. In his opinion they will do just that, stumble. Apparently, Putin shouldn’t have realistic expectations of them.
“It’s hard to plan for success when the entire system lies to the boss about its abilities,” the officer said. It is becoming apparent that sooner or later a decision will be made between the two centers of power around Putin. Because the “plan”, according to the officer, is “to have Shoigu and Gerasimov compete against Prigozhin and Kadyrov”. Then Putin would just see which side will “win,” the officer speculates. Russia’s military performance could therefore be decisive for both centers of power around Putin in the coming weeks. (vk)
#President #Gerasimov #compete #Prigozhin