Daniel Noboa makes politics with other manuals that the opposition has not managed to decipher or understand. The opposition continues to think about the establishment while the president of Ecuador does the opposite of what the political manual dictates and frustrates his opponents because he manages to position his message more quickly with videos and speeches, even when he uses decontextualized and erroneous data, such as those he has shown about youth employment, violent deaths, sabotage or the purchase of ambulances for the public health system. The opposition has not managed to refute the president in time and, when he reacts, his speech is diluted in a new problem of those that hit the country daily.
With an approval rating of around 60%, Noboa is building his opponents. The first step has been to leave behind the neutral discourse of when he was a candidate and has positioned himself at the other end of the main political force, the Citizen Revolution movement, led by former President Rafael Correa. Noboa characterizes the new anti-Correism and tries to occupy the space of the right, which was orphaned, explains political analyst Caroline Ávila. “The way to do it is with a heavy hand against insecurity and zero impunity, which he demonstrated by capturing Jorge Glas in La Roca,” adds the academic. The trophy of having won that battle was to cancel the candidacy of Jan Topic, the candidate of the right-wing Social Christian Party (PSC), who came in fourth place in the last presidential elections despite his attempt to imitate Nayib Bukele, the president of El Salvador.
But this was not always the case. The turning point was the assault on the Mexican Embassy in Quito. That day, for several hours, there was an uncomfortable silence from part of the opposition. It could have been the shock of seeing the seemingly improbable images of Ecuador’s elite police officers climbing the walls of the diplomatic house or because their political ally had taken an excessive measure. Before that Friday, April 5, Ecuadorian politics was living a honeymoon from which no one wanted to wake up. The president sent a law to Congress, the plenary met, the legislators gave their speeches – so to speak – and approved it with a majority, and those who called themselves opposition did not deny their vote, they abstained. The Government obtained a steamroller in the Legislature without being a majority and governed for several months without opposition. But both sides were forced to radically change their position and discourse after the international condemnation of invading the diplomatic legation.
For Ávila, this is evidence of other underlying problems: the lack of ideology of the political parties and that they respond to their own agenda and not to the interests of their voters. The popular consultation called by Noboa is an example of this. The main political parties did not register to campaign for the no. For example, Revolución Ciudadana was weakly opposed to two questions about modifying work by hours and opening international arbitration for contractual disputes, until the capture of Jorge Glas came into the picture. Then it changed its discourse to the No in the eleven questions posed by the president. “The opposition does not follow the ideological lines of the Government, but because it is interfering with its private agenda, because it does not give the votes to prosecute the prosecutor or because it sent Jorge Glas to La Roca,” says Ávila.
The absence of the opposition has been felt in key government policy decisions, such as the increase in VAT, the signing of an agreement with the International Monetary Fund and the elimination of the fuel subsidy. None has represented that part of the population that has been bothered by the new measures. With the exception of Conaie, which represents indigenous movements and is one of the most ideologized groups, the others have shown lukewarm positions. For example, the PSC, which after many years has achieved the presidency of Congress and its main political flag has always been to free the population from taxes, its voice was barely heard to oppose the increase in VAT.
Noboa sets the pace for his opponents whom he now accuses of uniting against him. “It is the old Ecuador resisting a new era with all the nails it has left,” said the Government spokesman, estarn Torres, after a session of the plenary session of the Assembly in which he approved a resolution to repudiate the expressions that Noboa made in an interview with journalist Jon Lee Anderson, in which he referred to Petro as a left-wing snob; Milei who has achieved nothing and Bukele as arrogant. The opposition failed in its attempt to hit the president and the resolution was forgotten, because the Government established the idea – misleading – that the assembly members want to declare him “crazy.” This accusation can open impeachment processes in Ecuador, as well as in Peru.
“Noboa wants to continue being the solitary hawk that defends itself against the partitocracy,” believes political consultant Pablo Pardo. The Government is losing its allies, it entrenches itself in social networks and in his wife influencer. This is until his disruptive policy manual expires. “Since he has little time left in power, he is shooting everywhere, thinking in the short term and hitting back,” adds Pardo. While the opposition, which also thinks about the elections, is not serious about being the counterweight to the decisions of an obstinate and radical Noboa, who does not listen to his opposition. Quite the contrary, he makes fun of her.
With time running out, the parties have not yet defined who their candidates will be for the 2025 presidential elections. So far, the only visible candidate is Daniel Noboa. The next elections seem predictable, unless a piece moves at the last minute and Diana Salazar, the state prosecutor, enters the electoral race. She has led the most important corruption investigations in the country and 45% of the population approves of her political potential, according to the Cedatos pollster. And although she has said that she does not plan to run in the next elections, her presence on the ballot would kick the political board, and could even relegate the country’s leading political forces.
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