Many want China to be a mediator in the war between Israel and Hamas. But Beijing is overwhelmed by this and is primarily pursuing its own interests. It also remains silent about Hamas atrocities.
In the Middle East conflict, pressure is growing on China to finally get involved constructively. “We would like to have China on board with all the other players,” Fariz Mehdawi, Palestine’s ambassador to Beijing, said in an interview on Monday Bloomberg TV. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called on his counterpart Wang Yi in a conversation on Saturday to use his influence on other actors such as Iran so that they do not interfere in the conflict. Israel’s ambassador to China had also previously called on Beijing to take advantage of its close relations with Iran. Tehran supports the anti-Israel Hezbollah militia in southern Lebanon, which has been threatening attacks on northern Israel for days.
China’s Middle East special envoy Zhai Jun will arrive in the region this week. Zhai told state broadcaster CGTN that he would “further strengthen coordination with all parties toward a ceasefire, protection of civilians, de-escalation and promotion of peace talks.” However, how much Zhai can achieve is uncertain.
China lacks diplomatic skills
So far, China has not behaved particularly diplomatically. On the contrary: Beijing angered Israel with platitudes. No official condemned the Islamic terror group Hamas’ deadly attacks on civilians in southern Israel, which also left at least three Chinese nationals dead. Instead, there were calls for both sides to end the violence. China’s state media widely blame the USA for the escalation. It seems similar to Beijing’s stance on the Ukraine war, which is now reviled in the West as “pro-Russian neutrality”. If Beijing’s stance is now perceived as “pro-Palestinian neutrality” on the Israeli side, Zhai’s mission will be difficult.
Failure, however, would damage China’s interests in the region as well as its goal of being perceived as a responsible global power. China wants to expand its influence in the global south, which includes the Middle East region where the US has traditionally dominated. The conflict between Israel and Hamas could become a test of China’s enormous ambitions.
China: Contact with the Global South
Foreign Minister Wang is therefore increasingly talking to representatives of the global south about the crisis. At a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday, Wang emphasized that the most urgent task was a ceasefire and the establishment of channels for humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip. Large countries – those like China and Russia – should steer the peace process. Wang also spoke to Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister and criticized Israel’s actions in Gaza as going beyond pure self-defense. Jerusalem should, as demanded by the UN, end the collective punishment of the people of Gaza. The conflict tragically shows that the path to resolution lies in the realization of the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people, Wang said in a conversation with a Brazilian presidential adviser.
There’s nothing really wrong with that. But China’s reaction shows no empathy for the civilian victims in Israel, as Democratic US Senator Chuck Schumer noted during his visit to China last week. And that reduces the chances of mediation.
China is no match for mediating the highly complex conflict
Traditionally, China does not play a major security policy role in the region, but maintains good relations with practically all states, even if they are enemies. Therefore, in April, Beijing managed to mediate the rapprochement between the rival regional powers Saudi Arabia and Iran. Inspired by this coup, that same month then-Foreign Minister Qin Gang offered Israel and the Palestinians Chinese mediation in their decades-long conflict. But China has obviously gone one step further, as its weak response to the current crisis shows. Generations of negotiators from the West and other countries have cut their teeth on the decades-long conflict.
China should at least know how divided the Palestinians themselves are. The moderate Fatah organization in the West Bank under Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has little in common with the Islamist Hamas in Gaza. Abbas visited Beijing in June and has long advocated non-violent resistance. Hamas’ policies and actions “do not represent the Palestinian people,” Abbas emphasized in a telephone conversation with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. If Beijing had condemned the Hamas atrocities, Abbas would certainly not protest.
China has no self-interest in the conflict and is neither on one side nor the other, emphasized special envoy Zhai. But in the Middle East it is always about oil and gas – and therefore about tangible self-interests. This applies to China as well as to the USA and others. China’s dependence on oil imports from abroad – especially from the Gulf region including Iran – is increasing rapidly. Beijing therefore needs stability in the region as well as good relations with all actors. The war over Gaza and Israel could now destroy China’s carefully cultivated network of relationships in the region. So there is a lot at stake for Beijing.
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