For months the idea of an advance of the presidential elections in Venezuela has been slipping from Chavismo. This Thursday Nicolás Maduro has put it back on the table. “We don’t know if the presidential elections will be this year or next. Keep that secret for me,” he said during the commemoration of April 13, 2002, the day Hugo Chávez returned to power after the brief coup against him. This statement strains the struggle between the Government and the opposition to reconcile democratic guarantees for these presidential elections, which would be the last chance to find a way out of the serious political and institutional crisis that the South American country is experiencing, surrounded by the international community for its authoritarian drift.
“They are trying to wash their face, they are trying to disguise themselves as democrats to run in the upcoming elections,” warned Maduro in reference to the opposition, which is organizing to choose a unitary candidate through primaries called for October 22, with the premise that the presidential elections would be held in 2024. It is not the first time that Chavismo has used early play as a strategy to upset the opposition. He did it in 2018, with the elections held on May 20 of that year, which in the end have led to the legitimacy crisis of his Government, which between 2010 and 2021 ceased to be recognized by a part of the international community.
After five years, the 2018 maneuver finds itself in a different context, in which those who imposed the harshest economic sanctions have made gestures to make them more flexible in an energy scenario where Venezuelan oil has become relevant after the veto imposed. to Russia for the war in Ukraine. Maduro has also taken advantage of the changes of government in the region and also of the disaster that the opposition has experienced after the dissolution of the interim government incarnated by Juan Guaidó, who acted as a counterpower.
The arrival of the leftist Gustavo Petro to the presidency of Colombia has expanded Chavismo’s capacity for dialogue. The Colombian president has wanted to become a traction lever in the stagnant Venezuelan crisis, for which he has made important approaches to Maduro with four visits to the country. For next April 25, he has convened a meeting of leaders from 15 countries to discuss the Venezuelan case as a regional issue and support the resumption of dialogue, according to Foreign Minister Álvaro Leyva. But Petro has also pointed out pending issues to Maduro such as re-entry into the inter-American human rights system, the need to give guarantees to the opposition and had also expressly asked not to advance the elections, according to government sources.
Since the negotiations began in Mexico, again sponsored by the Kingdom of Norway after two failures in Oslo and Barbados, the Unitary Platform has claimed the lack of political commitments on the part of the Government to reach that ideal of free and competitive elections that claims both inside and outside the country. The release of political prisoners and the qualification of candidates and candidates blocked by arbitrary judicial processes have been two demands on which no agreements have been put on the table. The Maduro government delegation has managed to steer the conversation, leaving it stagnant most of the time to pressure the United States to release the sanctions that have complicated the sale of oil.
A few weeks ago, the head of the official delegation, Jorge Rodríguez, conditioned the return to negotiations in Mexico to the release of 756 sanctions and Chavismo hardened its tone against the opposition. A few days ago, the leader of Voluntad Popular Juan Guaidó, a pre-candidate in the primaries, denounced that the Government had issued an order to arrest him, which led Washington to warn of a tightening of sanctions despite the fact that the White House reestablished communications with chavismo last year. This same Thursday, Maduro responded: “We do not accept threats from the United States Government. Here we are standing with our own efforts and we will continue advancing with our own efforts”.
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