Up until 2019, life expectancy rose steadily worldwide on average: it has now been falling for the first time since Corona, by an average of around two years in Europe.
Los Angeles – For the first time since 1950, there has been a global decline in human life expectancy. The reason for this is the corona pandemic. At least that’s the conclusion of a US study by the California Center for Population Research in California. It was first published in the magazine Population and Development Review.
Corona study: The weakness of the study is the lack of data from some countries
The study by California’s Center for Population Research focused primarily on the US and Europe, where “high-quality mortality data was available,” according to the US research center’s report, published by Patrick Heuveline.
However, the article then reports on the changes in life expectancy around the world, as far as they can be estimated using scientifically recognized methods based on the data available up to the end of 2021. However, this insufficient data situation in some parts of the world is the weak point of current studies that claim to provide worldwide figures.
Average global life expectancy: down 0.92 years in 2020, down 0.72 years in 2021
Global life expectancy appears to have decreased by 0.92 years between 2019 and 2020 and by a further 0.72 years between 2020 and 2021 as a result of the coronavirus. However, the decline seems to have ended so far (at least for the time being) in the last quarter of 2021.
This is the first decline in global life expectancy since 1950, the first year for which the United Nations presented a global estimate. It is estimated, according to Heuveline, that the annual decline in life expectancy will exceed two years in at least 50 countries around the world by the end of 2021.
Corona study shows decrease in life expectancy – in many countries also of well over 2 years
Between 2019 and 2021, life expectancy in eight countries is estimated to have declined by more than two years per year (four years total), the research center’s report says, five countries in the Americas (Peru, 5.6 years; Guatemala, 4, 8 years; Paraguay, 4.7 years; Bolivia, 4.1 years; and Mexico, 4.0 years) and three countries in Europe (Russian Federation, 4.3 years; Bulgaria, 4.1 years; and North Macedonia, 4 ,1 years).
In Peru, the annual change was as high as seven years, and in several other countries in the Americas (Mexico, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Paraguay, Colombia, Ecuador, and French Guiana) between four and six years. In Europe, annual changes reached just over four years in Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia and over three years in some other countries (Montenegro, Bulgaria, Albania and Poland).
Significant annual changes are also observed across Asia, from Southeast Asia (Philippines, 3.0 years) and South Asia (India, 2.6 years) to Central Asia (Kazakhstan, 3.2 years) and West Asia (Lebanon, 3.4 years). ) as well as in the few countries on the African continent with sufficient data (Tunisia, 3.4 years; South Africa, 3.1 years; and Egypt, 2.3 years).
Of the countries for which there was sufficient data to be included in the study, only East Asian, Australian and New Zealand countries, and European countries west of the Baltic to Balkan line did not reach the two-year mark between 2020 and 2021.
Similar sharp declines in life expectancy since the 1950s only in war and pandemic zones
Since the 1950s, annual declines of this magnitude have never been observed globally, and only rarely in individual countries, such as Cambodia in the 1970s, Rwanda in the 1990s, and possibly some sub-Saharan African countries at the height of the AIDS pandemic.
Available data suggest that most of the pandemic-related mortality occurred in countries outside of Europe and the Americas. The results suggest that mortality declines are most dramatic in many parts of Asia, and arguably Africa. According to the study’s estimates, they are significantly higher than the figures reported for the corresponding countries, insofar as corresponding figures are available at all.
Improving the data on the mortality rate would be important
According to the study, the need for better monitoring of mortality trends in these countries cannot be overstated Population and Development Review finally. Other studies have also estimated the actual decline in mortality to be significantly higher than can be proven by the available figures.
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