The world is tormented by an era of wars and internal conflicts that further undermine the stability of democracies, and Latin America cannot escape this trend. For the eighth consecutive year, the democratic quality of the region experienced a decline, due, in part, to security-related challenges driving the emergence of “authoritarian political projects.”
This is stated in the new annual report 'Democracy Index', from The Economist Intelligence Unit, which judges the democratic quality in 165 countries – covering the majority of the world's population – based on five indicators: electoral process and pluralism, functioning of the government, political participation, democratic political culture and freedoms.
According to the report, published in mid-February, 2023 was a year marked by violence, by the continuity of the conflict in Ukraine after the Russian invasion, the war in Gaza after the attack in Israel, the increase in tensions between Venezuela and Guyana over the Essequibo, coups d'état in West Africa and organized crime in Latin America, among other sources of concern. After the impact on global stability due to the coronavirus pandemic and in the face of this turbulent scenario, the world's democracies are trying to get back on their feet, but “they seem powerless to prevent wars from breaking out (…) and less skilled at managing the conflict at home ”the report states.
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In line with a general trend of regression and stagnation, overall democratic quality had the lowest score so far, with an average of 5.23 out of 10. Norway establishes itself once again, at the top of the ranking, as the best full democracy, while Afghanistan continues at the other end, with the worst score of authoritarian regimes. All regions experienced drops in their average, but Latin America and the Caribbean – along with the Middle East and North Africa – marked the largest decrease, with an average that went from 5.79 in 2022 to 5.68 in 2023. the lowest score since the ranking began publishing in 2006 and the biggest year-on-year drop since 2016. However, it remains the third “most democratic” region behind North America and Western Europe.
Democracies seem powerless to prevent wars from breaking out (…) and less adept at managing conflict at home
The case of Chile
Fewer and fewer Latin Americans live in what is considered a full democracy. While in 2022 this group made up 4 percent of the regional population, now it is just over 1 percent, because Chile left that category. The vast majority (54%) inhabit a model of “imperfect democracy”; 35%, in a hybrid regime, and 9%, under authoritarian regimes.
Now Only two Latin American countries make up the favorite group of the 24 full democracies in the world. The regional list is headed by Uruguay, despite the fact that it registered a worse performance globally, falling from 11th to 14th place, due to its political culture faltering, according to the report. Costa Rica, without major changes in its average, remains firmly in 17th place.
Chile was once again considered an imperfect democracy. The country, which is characterized by having solid institutions, low levels of corruption within the State apparatus and high levels of civil liberties, had a slight decrease in terms of its levels of participation and political culture.
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“According to the latest surveys, more than half of Chileans say they prefer experts to have more power, which, according to our index, demonstrates a distrust in democracy. Another variable that explains the result is that support for democracy in Chile is low and has decreased,” Nicolás Saldías, co-author of the report and specialist in Latin America for the Intelligence Unit of The Economist, explained to La Nación (Argentina).
Recent opinion studies showed that 36 percent of Chileans believe that the military who carried out the coup of socialist Salvador Allende “were right,” a figure that 10 years ago was 18 percent. Furthermore, the number of people who defend that Augusto Pinochet's regime was “partly good and partly bad” is progressively increasing.
Something similar happened in Uruguay, where “a high rating of political experts and a decrease in support for democracywhich falls below the 75% threshold,” explains the slight decrease in the score, says Saldías.
Variables
Democracy in Latin America is in constant threat due to the resurgence of violence related to the main security challenges, such as organized crime and drug trafficking. This had an impact on the electoral processes in the last year, with Ecuador (hybrid regime) as the most obvious case with the brutal gunshot murder of the presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio, a case unsolved to this day. President Daniel Noboa resorted to declaring a state of emergency this year after the prison escape of one of the biggest drug traffickers, alias Fito, led to uncontrollable levels of violence, to the point that drug gangs took a live television channel. According to the report, measures such as the declaration of internal conflict “pose significant risks to the already weak democracy in 2024.”
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Likewise, two other factors have influenced the regional score. The report mentions, on the one hand, “coup attempts”, in relation to the political instability that Guatemala experienced (hybrid regime) after the triumph of the current president, Bernardo Arévalo, whose transfer to power was challenged by rulings by the judiciary that sought to prevent his inauguration.
The second factor is polarization, the factor that affected democratic performance in Argentina, where it reached “new levels in the 2023 presidential elections” that consecrated the libertarian Javier Milei as president. The country, once again categorized as an “imperfect democracy,” fell four places in the ranking compared to the previous year, reaching 54th place globally and maintaining ninth place in the region. With a worse performance in terms of political participation and political culture, Argentina's average was 6.62 out of 10, a figure that is striking when compared to those of 2019 and 2015, two electoral years in which the country recorded its best score so far (7.02).
“Argentina's presidential elections in 2023 were the most polarized in the country's recent history, facing two extreme populisms: one from the right and the other from the left. This raised the levels of confrontation to unprecedented levels.with both sides using existential language about the future of Argentine democracy,” said Saldías.
“Besides, the interference of foreign actors in the Argentine elections, with leaders from other countries openly supporting certain candidates, It also demonstrates the level of polarization that endangers social cohesion, which explains the decrease in Argentina's score,” the expert added. In the report, President Gustavo Petro was accused of directly supporting the candidate of the then ruling party Sergio Massa.
Colombia, like Argentina, fell short in the political culture variable, in which it obtained a 3.75 out of 10.0. However, this variable remained firm from 2022 to 2023.
Central America
Again, The Achilles heel of the region is Central America, which is nevertheless home to a full democracy – Costa Rica –, had the greatest subregional decline, thanks to Nicaragua, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador. The report warns about the authoritarian turn of the Salvadoran president, Nayib Bukele, who secured five more years in power with a re-election prohibited by the Constitution. Re-elected on February 4 with 82.6% of the votes, Bukele managed to reduce gang violence in the country to a minimum, at the expense of a state of emergency that has lasted for almost two years, which restricts civil liberties and accumulates complaints of human rights violations.
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“Political reforms were approved in June to reduce the number of seats in the Legislative Assembly and the number of municipalities, which will further limit the chances of opposition parties gaining power“, details the report, which also mentions that “press freedom is under attack.”
Finally, Paraguay is the only country in the region that rose in categorya –now considered an “imperfect democracy”–, thanks to greater participation of women in Congress after the 2023 elections. Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba remain at the bottom of the regional ranking.
LUCÍA SOL MIGUEL
LA NACION (ARGENTINA) – GDA
How did Colombia fare?
After 2022, which represented a year of democratic progress in the country with a rating of 6.72 (up six points in the ranking), 2023 did not have that same optimistic result.
The country fell in its rating with 6.55 out of 10, ranking 55th globally (in 2022 it was at 53). The variable in which he fell the most was in political culture, maintaining the 3.75 out of 10.0 that he had obtained in 2022.
The functioning of the government also had no variations and was the second worst rated variable, with 6.07 out of 10.0. In terms of political participation, Colombia fell 0.11 points from 2022 to 2023 (went from 6.67 to 6.11). Likewise, in the area of civil rights it fell from one year to the next (from 7.94 to 7.65). Finally, the rating of electoral processes and pluralism remained unchanged at 9.17.
The country is ranked 10th in the regional ranking. The best rating that the country has obtained was in 2019, with a 7.13 out of 10.0.
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