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Macron wants to stop the right-wing nationalists in the 2024 French election. But will he succeed? The latest polls suggest an answer.
Paris – The French election 2024 is causing considerable unrest: for the first time, right-wing populists could gain government responsibility at the national level in France. National Rally (RN) by Marine Le Pen lies in the last Polls before the new elections at least in the first place.
Last polls before the French election: Macron falters – Le Pen’s party continues to gain momentum
According to the latest polls before the French election, the Alliance New Popular Front (NFP) from left-wing populists, socialists, communists and greensThe New People’s Front is a new version of the former alliance called Nupes, which was formed after the beginning of the Gaza-War. And where is the camp of Emmanuel Macron? The Ensemble electoral alliance supported by the President will therefore not get beyond third place.
French election 2024: Latest polls show trend
A look at the figures from the latest polls before the French election shows that the Macron camp is unlikely to have a chance of challenging the RN’s victory. According to the election trend of the latest polls, Marine Le Pen’s RN is receiving just under 35 percent of the vote. The New Popular Front is at around 28 percent, while the Macron camp Ensemble is at around 20 percent before the French election in 2024.
RN | 35 |
NFP | 28 |
ensemble | 20 |
LR | 7 |
REC | 2 |
Other | 8th |
(Source: Politicoweighted average of polls, as of June 28)
Latest forecasts on seat distribution after the 2024 French election
It should be remembered, however, that the members of the National Assembly are elected in two rounds according to a majority voting system. In contrast to Germany, where a personalized proportional representation system applies, this leads to smaller parties doing worse in the allocation of seats. However, this can only be calculated after the second round of the French election. However, a prediction is also possible here. The latest forecasts for the allocation of seats after the 2024 French election are as follows:
RN and right-wing allies | 225 to 265 |
NFP | 170 to 200 |
ensemble | 70 to 100 |
LR and various rights | 30 to 60 |
DVG (various left-wing) | 10 to 18 |
Other | 1 to 5 |
(Source: Ifopas of 28 June)
Latest polls and forecasts leave everything open for the 2024 French election
RN party leader Jordan Bardella is claiming the office of prime minister, but will only take over if he wins an absolute majority. If this is the case, Macron could be politically forced to appoint him after the French election. This would be the fourth time France has experienced a cohabitation in which the president and prime minister come from different camps.
However, according to the latest polls and forecasts for the 2024 French election, it is still completely unclear whether this will happen. In the 2022 parliamentary election, the Macron camp won 245 seats, while the RN only won 89. (cs/AFP)
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