Polls open for presidential elections in Iran with all eyes on the key data of turnout, while awareness grows among all candidates credited with a chance of winning that a negotiation with the US on sanctions is now unavoidable. The elections in Iran They represent yet another opportunity for a country that has followed a difficult path since the 1979 revolution, between sanctions and international isolation. And even in these consultations – called a year in advance – the Islamic Republic did not disappoint expectations.
Just over a month ago, then-President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash that authorities quickly dismissed as an accident. In mid-April, in response to the bombing of its consulate in Damascus, Iran launched a direct attack, ‘telegraphed’ as it may be but unprecedented, against Israel. In such a context, experts and observers agree, For the establishment, it seems vital to find new legitimacy through a high turnout, a point on which the Supreme Leader habitually insists. It is no coincidence that, unlike those of 2021 (overwhelmed by Raisi with practically no opponents), those held today do not appear to be elections with an already decided outcome. “Not armored” Nicola Pedde, director of the Institute for Global Studies (Igs), defines them in an interview with Adnkronos.
Even though the Guardian Council’s axe has once again fallen on dozens of aspiring candidates, making illustrious victims such as the former speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani or the former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, The entire Iranian political landscape is represented at the vote. Among the four candidates still in the running are representatives of the principalist or conservative current such as the current speaker of the Majlis, Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf, of the ‘paydari’ or ultraconservatives such as the former chief negotiator on nuclear power, Saeed Jalili, and – a novelty compared to the last election – also of the reformist camp such as Masoud Pezeshkian. All the polls indicate an inevitable run-off, with the variable turnout considered decisive in understanding who will win.
Voting estimates from the day before indicate that between 50 and 55% of the electorate will go to the polls. With these data “there will be a run-off”, believes Raffaele Mauriello, a professor at the ‘Allameh Tabatabai’ University of Tehran, according to whom if in the second round the turnout were to grow further and reach 60%, a victory for the reformist candidate – who it could also gather the consensus of the so-called anti-system electorate – it would not be a utopia.
From Tehran, where he teaches, Mauriello notes a “certainly greater” interest from the population towards the elections, “there is no apathy” like in those of 2021, “but the unknown remains as to how many people will go to vote”. It will be necessary to evaluate whether the will to boycott them will assert itself among the reformists and whether the economic crisis and “the consequences of the protests for the death of Mahsa Amini” will weigh heavily. It is precisely on the crisis that he places the emphasis Afifeh Abedi, researcher at the Center for Strategic Research (Csr) of Tehran, one of the Islamic Republic’s main think tanks, according to which Iranians “are looking for a presidential candidate who can put an end to the current political and social divide in the country and have greater managerial authority” than Raisi, whose performance, according to many analysts, has been disappointing. In an interview with Adnkronos, Abedi believes that social issues are also among the voters’ “priorities”, starting with the issue of the hijab, a subject of debate during the election campaign. The only aspect on which all the candidates agree, and on which Khamenei is not reluctant, is that the problem of the economy is unsolvable without a compromise with the West. This was the central argument of all four debates that had the theme of sanctions precisely as a trade union.
For Pedde, the novel element of the elections is the presence of “attractive” candidates also for that electorate considered disillusioned by the West but which is essentially now completely disconnected from an ideological and practical point of view from the government system of the Islamic Republic. Just like Pezeshkian, who is growing a lot in the polls and who also seems to have a chance of winning. To the point of suggesting a coalition between paydari and mainstays in the second round to avoid a reformist triumph. After a disappointing performance at the first debate, in the next three Pezeshkian was “more brilliant, especially on foreign and social policy”, says the director of the Igs, according to whom the hype surrounding the candidacy of the former Minister of Health “weighed heavily the endorsement of the former Foreign Minister Zarif which alarmed the conservatives tremendously” and of the former president, Hassan Rouhani. It is no coincidence that in the area newspaper Kayhan, the editor Hossein Shariatmadari explicitly appealed to the other candidates to withdraw and join forces to support Qalibaf.
The former mayor of Tehran has attracted Pedde’s attention for the way he acted during the election campaign. Supporting the need to “renegotiate with the United States” after the unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA decided by Donald Trump in 2018“has intercepted that part of the vote that even in the reformist and pragmatic sphere sees the solution to the problems with the West as the main lever to resolve the economic crisis”. For the expert, with a turnout of 50-55% none of the candidates will win in the first round and there will be a Pezeshkian-Qalibaf run-off, while with a lower figure Jalili’s chances would increase, strong of a reference electorate that is certainly a minority, but compact and that above all participates convincingly in the vote. On the contrary, a very high turnout over 60% would reward Pezeshkian. But, according to Pedde, at the moment Qalibaf is the favorite. In the case of a second round, the current speaker could intercept the ultra-conservative vote and on the fifth attempt could finally become president. The election of Qalibaf, Pedde underlines, would also be preparatory to a key passage represented by the post-Khamenei era which is getting closer and closer with the advancing age of the current Guide.
“Khamenei has no great interest in seeing Jalili in government, for him it would be a repetition of the Ahmadinejad experience which was a failure, since the paydari have within them a strong radical component hostile to the Guide – he explains – I instead believe the principalists are the only ones capable of managing the transition during the delicate phase that will open after Khamenei’s death, when most likely with a constitutional amendment the powers of the Rahbar will be reduced and, in this sense, Qalibaf is the ideal candidate”.
Also Mauriello believes that a second round challenge between Qalibaf and Pezeshkian is likely, given that the turnout was just over 50%.. The reformist candidate, he summarizes, has not questioned the red lines of the Islamic Republic, such as the issue of the moral police and the powers of the Guide, “he has not started to be populist” and has not tried to entice with attractive issues, such as the veil, the so-called Gen Z that led the protest for Mahsa and who have never voted so far. These are potential voters who “are looking for a substantial change” and who “with honesty” Pezeshkian has not tried to ‘win over’ with promises that are then difficult to keep. Instead, “with intelligence” he has addressed the majority of the population who are between 35 and 45 years old without trying to “force the political confrontation” unlike Mostafa Pourmohammadi, the only ‘rohani’ (the word equivalent to ulema in Arabic) who wears a turban and who has set up a more aggressive campaign.
The professor is not surprised by Qalibaf’s clear indication of his willingness to negotiate with the US, if elected. The former mayor of Tehran “is actually a pragmatist, a technocrat who has a less extremist position even on the veil. The fact that he wants to make the agreement with the United States does not surprise me, even Raisi wanted to try, even Jalili wants to get there but from a position of strength – he concludes – Qalibaf instead is a less ideological politician and therefore seeks consensus”.
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