This is the most important European election in recent decades. This is how Politico analysts describe the early legislative elections that will be held on June 30 and July 7 in France. Underlining, among other things, that France’s role in the European Union and in NATO is at stake. The far right, which has a good chance of forming the new government in France, is skeptical of both the EU and the Atlantic Alliance. And the far right will find itself leading a nuclear-armed permanent member country of the United Nations Security Council that plays an important role in global security from the North Atlantic to the Pacific.
Financially, global market participants fear that these political tensions could upend the world’s seventh-largest economy and risk another period of instability in the heart of the eurozone. Among other things, the new French government, whoever it is, will inherit a significant debt and a public deficit equal to 5.1% of the gross domestic product. The European Commission has just opened an “excessive deficit” procedure against France. Since Macron’s shock announcement to dissolve the National Assembly following the European elections defeat of June 9, the political landscape in France has changed at lightning speed, with new alliances emerging overnight and rifts playing out in public. This makes it difficult to make reliable predictions about seats and coalitions. However, turnout for this crucial election is expected to be record high, as indicated by a spike in proxy voting, adding another layer of uncertainty to the vote.
Forecasts
Marine Le Pen’s party needs at least 289 seats to obtain a majority in the French Parliament and the far right currently looks set to make big gains thanks to a successful campaign in the European elections. Opinion polls should be taken with a pinch of salt, warns Politico, but Rassemblement National (RN) and its allies could win between 220 and 260 seats according to current projections. That would be a record increase from the 88 MPs they currently have.
If the far right obtained a majority in Parliament, the French president would have to enter into a ”cohabitation” agreement with the Rassemblement national and appoint a far-right prime minister. Jordan Bardellathe president of the Rassemblement national, has said several times that he will not seek to lead a government unless he has an absolute majority. This presumably means he will need coalition partners, unless it is an electoral strategy to achieve a large turnout.
The far right has already reached an agreement with Eric Ciotti, leader of the center-right party Les Républicains, to support some like-minded conservatives so that they do not compete with each other in some constituencies. For the absolute majority, however, he would still need to obtain the support of other LR parliamentarians or of the Reconquest party, also of the far right, but its leader is hostile to Le Pen. The alliance between the centre-right and the far right is however a great ideological victory for the Rassemblement nationalbut it has also triggered a strong backlash among conservatives horrified that the party of presidents like Charles de Gaulle and Jacques Chirac is making deals with the far right.
But how much will Le Pen invest in coalition talks, given her desire to keep her political capital intact ahead of the 2027 presidential election? If her party leads a government that has a bumpy ride, it could hurt her chances of leading the Elysée.
The Ensemble, the coalition supporting the French president, includes his Renaissance party, the centrist MoDem and the centre-right Horizons party. Ensemble currently controls 250 seats in parliament, but is suffering a decline in support. Current projections see Ensemble MPs falling to fewer than 110 seats in the 577-strong National Assembly, squeezed by both the left and the far right. For the first time, Macron’s coalition is not running as a single party. Horizons, the party led by former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe which has presidential ambitions, is going it alone but could rejoin a coalition after the elections.
Macron, the polls and the other front
Although Macron’s coalition is third in nationwide polls, there is still some glimmer of hope that it will not be completely swept away in the first round. A high turnout means three candidates are likely to advance to the second round in up to 170 constituencies, according to recent projections. This is both a blessing and a curse for Macron’s liberals and the left-wing alliance. The third-best-placed candidates in three-way contests dominated by the far right will face pressure to withdraw and rally behind the second-best placer to defeat the National Rally candidate.
With unexpected speed, France’s left-wing parties then put aside their squabbles and united before the vote. Following an agreement, the far-left France insoumise (LFI), the Socialist Party, the Communist Party and the Greens are running single candidates in 546 constituencies across France. The alliance, called the New Popular Front, is a revised version of the 2022 Nupes alliance, conceived by Mélenchon. This time, however, the socialists are a much more powerful partner following the successful campaign of the socialist-backed candidate Raphael Glucksmann in the European elections. Of the 546 candidates who will represent the new alliance, 229 will be supported by France insoumise, compared to 175 for the socialists, 92 for the Greens and 50 for the communists.
The New Popular Front is certainly attracting voters, with current projections for the alliance to win 180 to 210 seats. True, it needs 289 for a majority, and the left would need to form a coalition if it were to propose a prime minister who would win parliamentary approval. But such calculations will amount to nothing if the Socialists and France Insoumise, who disagree on key issues such as Ukraine and Gaza, fail to put aside their differences. With the moderate Glucksmann and others saying they would never accept Mélenchon as prime minister, that may be a step too far.
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