Editorial | Macron stumbled on his own gamble

Veven though many politicians believe that they are more popular than they are, French President Emmanuel Macron’s assessment of his own popularity was very disappointing. Macron dissolved parliament and called new elections. The most significant result of the first round of the elections held on Sunday is not the victory of the extreme right led by Marine Le Pen, but the loss of Macron.

Seen from France in declining industrial cities, Macron and the Parisian elite are arrogant. Moderate forces in the center-right and center-left are now in a tight spot in France. It shouldn’t come as a surprise as the warning signs have been screaming down the street. Macron did not learn from the protests against the pension reform or the yellow vest protest movement.

Macron tried to make the French choose between himself and Le Pen, but the election was indeed a race of three. Macron’s center block is at the bottom and the two extremes on the right and the left are equally strong.

Le Pen’s National Coalition is the early favorite in next Sunday’s second round. The second round is about great tactics. Macron hopes that the socialists in the left bloc will still move behind the candidates of his center bloc, so that the votes of those who oppose the extreme right are not too divided between the left bloc and the center.

The left-wing coalition New People’s Front can still become the largest bloc. Its promises, such as raising the minimum wage, appeal to low-income voters, and its support for Gaza appeals to Muslim voters in immigrant neighborhoods. The left is not flowing behind Macron in large numbers.

Kthe prime ministerial candidate of the alliance is Jordan Bardella, a young Tiktok-era populist politician. Marine Le Pen is already running for president herself.

The national coalition has never been in power, but over the years has come to promise all kinds of populism, such as lowering the retirement age. But if the National Coalition does not get a majority in parliament alone, difficult government negotiations are ahead. The extreme left and the extreme right cannot find each other.

Macron’s own background is in the socialists, and therefore cooperation with the left-wing bloc is more likely than with the far-right. Whatever the government composition, Macron drove himself into a corner as president.

“

Macron caused great uncertainty for Europe.

France does not have a long tradition of political compromises, but on the other hand, everyday politics also eats away at extremist forces. If Macron’s centrist Together electoral alliance somehow found a way to cooperate with the left-wing bloc, the prime minister’s position would be on the left. Nobody needs to bail Macron out of trouble.

Macron became president in 2017 by promising to weaken the far right in France. Seven years later, Le Pen is stronger than ever.

It is unclear whether there are still moderate forces in France that have the will and ability to prevent the rise of anti-EU right-wing radicals to power.

Macron caused Europe great uncertainty about France’s direction. The approach of elections is also visible in German politics. In German politics, you can see special compromises when the governing parties running for election cannot agree on anything. At the same time, the political situation in the United States is unstable, as many Democrats were nervous about President Joe Biden’s failure in the election debate.

Cooperation between France and Germany is still central in the EU. Still, the EU is now witnessing a shift in power towards Italy, Spain and Eastern Central Europe.

The editorials are HS’s positions on a current topic. The articles are prepared by HS’s editorial department, and they reflect the journal principle line.