06/20/2024 – 9:21
The dollar is trading in a firm fall against the real this Thursday, 20th, after the unanimous decision of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) the day before to maintain the Selic rate at 10.50% per year, ending a cycle of seven consecutive interest cuts.
At 9:42 am, the spot dollar fell 0.58%, to R$5.4094 on sale. On B3, the first-month dollar futures contract fell 0.20%, to R$5.4110 on sale. See quotes.
+ Copom’s unanimous decision should reflect positively on the market, analysts say
The day before, the spot dollar ended the day at R$5.4407 on sale, a slight increase of 0.13%, reaching the highest closing price since January 4, 2023.
The performance of the dollar in Brazil is contrary to its results abroad. The dollar index — which measures the US currency’s performance against a basket of six currencies — rose 0.26% to 105.480.
Relief in the markets
In the statement, the BC stated that the downward cycle was interrupted due to the uncertain global scenario and the domestic scenario marked by “increased inflation projections”, without giving further clues about the decisions that will be taken at the next meetings.
“After the noise caused at the last meeting by the divided decision, this time the collegiate reached a consensus. The nine directors voted equally. I believe this was very important to reinforce that the decisions were taken technically and not with political interference and thus eliminate any doubt about the credibility of monetary policy”, said Marcelo Bolzan, partner at The Hill Capital.
The relief in the dollar could still be seen from the perspective that a higher Selic in Brazil makes the real more attractive for use in “carry trade” strategies, in which investors take out loans in countries with low rates and invest this money in higher markets. profitable, in order to profit from the interest differential.
Thus, the North American currency gave back some of the gains accumulated in recent sessions, when the market’s doubts regarding the government’s commitment to fiscal adjustment overlapped with the appetite for risk abroad.
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