Researchers in Africa and terrorist groups explain to Sky News Arabia what is behind Washington’s reluctance to use military force directly, whether against the Niger coup, or against terrorist groups, despite the growing influence of ISIS, al-Qaeda and others.
Recent US moves towards Niger
- The Pentagon’s deputy spokesperson, Sabrina Singh, confirmed, in a statement published on the ministry’s website, on Tuesday, that there is no change in the military presence in Niger, which has more than a thousand soldiers, and that what was only stopped (after the coup). ) is military training.
- The US Deputy Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Victoria Nuland, visited Niger on Monday, but did not reach any results. He described the encounters there as “very difficult.”
- The American official threatened the coup leaders with the aid file, saying that she had warned that this aid would be in great danger if the situation remained as it was, and she also warned in press statements in Niamey of the danger of summoning “Wagner” fighters.
- US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken confirmed Tuesday, in an interview with the BBC, that diplomacy is the best approach in settling the Niger crisis, warning in turn that Wagner might exploit the coup.
The countries of the Sahel region, which is a region extending over a vast area in central and western Africa, have been suffering from rebellions and terrorist activities in the last ten years, and at the same time there is growing discontent against every French or American military presence.
Barriers to military action
In the estimation of the American researcher Scott Morgan, who specializes in African affairs and national security, what prevents the United States from using force in Niger and the Sahel region now is due to:
- The United States still reverberates about its experience in Afghanistan (its failure to defeat terrorism despite its stay there for 20 years and it is fighting).
- US forces were subjected to a deadly ambush in Niger in 2017 (which claimed the lives of a number of soldiers).
- Now she is overly focused on the situation in Ukraine.
- It is interesting that the response of US President Joe Biden’s administration seemed to be faster and more concerned about the Niger crisis than it was when the fighting broke out in Sudan.
No counterterrorism strategy
For her part, the American expert specializing in international affairs, Irina Zuckerman, attributes the weak possibility of US military intervention now to:
- There is no consistent strategy in place to address the issue of terrorism there; What prevents Washington from engaging in open confrontations.
- The United States was counting on efforts led by French forces in the Sahel.
- Preoccupation with the ongoing influence struggle in the region between the United States and Russia and China.
- The presence of pro-Russian regimes surrounding Niger, such as Mali and Burkina Faso, with fighters in several neighboring countries as well.
- Regarding the future of US forces in Niger, it is not clear, given the Niger government’s invitation to “Wagner” to help it, and the presence of strong anti-Western sentiments in the region.
- But in the end, the United States will have to confront the terrorist threat, just as it was forced previously through its forces in Africa, AFRICOM, to fight the Al-Shabaab movement in Somalia, despite spending previous years in a diplomatic solution.
American forces in Niger
- American forces have been present in Niger since 2013 for anti-terror training missions, and have established bases for drone patrols.
- It is located at the 201st Air Base in Agadez, and the 101st Air Base in the capital, Niamey.
Among the most prominent terrorist groups active against Niger are the “Boko Haram” group, the “Nusrat al-Islam and Muslims” group affiliated with al-Qaeda, and the ISIS organization.
West Africa recorded more than 1,800 extremist attacks in the first six months of 2023, according to the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
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