4,000 Wagner mercenaries are stationed near the Suwalki Gap in Belarus. The NATO countries Poland and Lithuania are planning border closures. But is that enough?
Suwalki – The approximately 100-kilometer-long Suwalki Gap runs on the border between Lithuania and Poland and is considered to be NATO’s Achilles’ heel. Warsaw and Vilnius are concerned about tensions with neighboring Belarus and the 4,000 Russian Wagner mercenaries stationed there. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Lithuania’s leader Gitanas Nauseda announced stronger protection of their borders at an emergency meeting on Thursday (3 August). What plan could Moscow be pursuing with the provocations?
4,000 Wagner mercenaries already stationed near Suwalki Gap – another 10,000 could follow
In the event of a military confrontation between Russia and NATO, Western military experts have long considered the Suwalki gap to be a strategic point of attack for Moscow and thus a potential trouble spot. For the Baltic states, it is the only land connection with Poland – and thus also with NATO.
Ever since the three Baltic states joined NATO in 2004, the Suwalki Gap has been the Western defense alliance’s Achilles’ heel.
Around 4,000 Wagner mercenaries are currently located near the Belarusian city of Grodno, which lies just a few kilometers from the Polish-Lithuanian border. It is planned to station 10,000 more Wagner mercenaries there, Lithuania’s prime minister said in a report euronews according to. The situation is tense as there are fears that mercenaries from the private army could be illegally crossing the borders disguised as migrants.
Further provocations in the region: According to experts, Moscow is pursuing this goal
On Tuesday, two Belarusian military helicopters briefly violated Polish airspace. “These provocations will be repeated, I have no doubt about that,” Morawiecki believes. “One thing is absolutely clear: it would be too tempting for Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko not to use their presence in the immediate vicinity for possible provocations against NATO countries,” Nauseda said loudly dpa. Putin’s announcement in March that he was planning to station Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus also caused further tension in the region. In Kaliningrad, Russia provoked last year with military maneuvers and also has nuclear-capable Iskander missiles in the Russian exclave.
military experts from Defense Express hold a full-scale combat mission of the Wagner troops for unlikely. “It is the Kremlin’s style to gradually escalate the situation,” said a report on Friday. The Suwalki Corridor is the perfect place for commandos because of the forests. This is commonly used to refer to guerrilla actions in which enemy forces attack a location to create confusion and then retreat to a previously held position.
The goal of the Kremlin is obvious: The NATO resources are to be diverted to defending its own borders – that is exactly what Russia is trying to achieve at the Suwalki Gap. Attacks on the NATO countries Lithuania and Poland are “probably not to be expected,” says Eastern Europe expert Klaus Gestwa in an interview IPPEN.MEDIA. “That would be far too risky for Wagner and Belarus.”
Wagner mercenaries as commandos? Lithuania and Poland are planning border closures
In response to the presence of thousands of Wagner mercenaries in the neighboring country, Lithuania’s President Nauseda did not rule out that the neighboring states of Poland, Lithuania and Latvia could close their borders with Belarus in a coordinated manner. Vilnius has already announced that it will close two of its six border crossings with the neighboring country. “If we reduce the number of people passing through, we also reduce the threats,” said deputy border guard Saulius Nekracevicius. “I have no doubt that the actions that Wagner is carrying out are actually controlled by the Russian state,” Polish President Andrzej emphasized on Friday.
Poland had increased surveillance on the eastern border after the Belarusian helicopters invaded the airspace. “If warranted, the soldiers will use their weapons,” Duda warned. To date, around 10,500 NATO soldiers have been stationed in Poland and around 1,600 in Lithuania. At the end of June it became known that Germany intends to set up a 4,000-strong combat force permanently in Lithuania in order to strengthen NATO’s eastern flank. Warsaw began moving more than 1,000 additional soldiers and about 200 military vehicles to its eastern border with Belarus in July (bme with dpa).
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