YouGov/Economist survey shows the Democrat and Republican with 42% of voting intentions each; 1st presidential debate will be held this Thursday (June 27)
Search for YouGov/Economist held from the 23rd to the 25th of June shows a tie in voting intentions between the current president of the United States, Joe Biden (Democrat) and his opponent, the former president donald trump (Republican). According to the survey, 42% of American voters plan to vote for both candidates.
This tie in the poll comes at a time when Biden and Trump will face each other in a debate for the first time in 4 years, this Thursday (June 27, 2024). The clash is a repeat of the 2020 dispute. It starts at 10 pm (Brasília time) and will be broadcast live on CNN in Brazil.
Debates in North American elections are generally held closer to the dispute (which will be on November 5). This time, the meeting will be held without Trump and Biden having yet been officially nominated as candidates by their parties. The national conventions of the Republican and Democratic parties are scheduled for July and August, respectively. The debate on Thursday night (June 27) is scheduled to last an hour and a half (90 minutes) and will include 2 commercial breaks.
Biden enters the presidential debate without a clear advantage over his opponent, with polls indicating a scenario of a technical tie in several decisive states — the so-called “swing states”. This could lead the Democrat to take advantage of the spotlight to adopt a more aggressive stance against Trump, especially after the Republican’s conviction on 34 criminal charges in New York on May 30, becoming the first US president in history to be convicted. by common justice.
Even with the tie between the presidents, Trump does not enjoy widespread favoritism less than 6 months before his rematch against Biden at the polls. This is because, after the election, he became involved in several controversies, damaging his image among the electorate.
Trump left office with a 34% approval rating. In the following months, the Republican continued to deny the result of the vote. He is being investigated for inciting the acts that led to the invasion of the Capitol, on January 6, 2021, which left 6 people dead on the day of Biden’s victory and the return of Democrats to the White House.
Trump’s judicial record is not in his favor, but Biden is not taking off. Since 2023, neither candidate has opened up more than a 4 percentage point lead in the polls.
Biden’s mistakes
Amid political polarization in the country, the Democrat’s administration faces high disapproval regarding government policies. The migration crisis on the border with Mexico and diplomacy in international crises stand out.
Earlier this year, Biden accused Texas’ Republican governor, Greg Abbott, of obstructing federal agents’ access to areas of the border in an attempt to regain control. Abbott subsequently called for changing the jurisdiction that gives the White House broad authority over immigration.
In February, he defended a migration package on border security that would allow him to temporarily close the border. The project was rejected in the Senate.
The North American government has also been criticized for hesitations and controversies in dealing with international crises. Biden even confused Ukraine with the Gaza Strip when announcing the sending of humanitarian aid to the Middle East region.
The Democrat’s attitude towards the conflict in the Middle East, especially after the invasion of the Gaza Strip, and the defense of the actions of Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, despite accusations from the ICC (International Criminal Court), negatively affect the image of the current president and his re-election campaign.
Trump’s controversies
Former President of the United States Donald Trump faces strong rejection not only due to legal obstacles, but also because he is also collecting controversies in his 3rd consecutive presidential campaign.
On May 20, 2024, Trump released a video that suggested the creation of a “unified Reich” if he were re-elected. The term refers to the German empires, but is commonly associated with Adolf Hitler’s Nazi regime, described as the “3rd Reich”.
The Republican also gave his opinion on the war between Israel and Hamas. He called pro-Palestine protesters camped out at universities “left-wing extremists.” And he criticized Joe Biden for not taking a stance on protests in institutions.
Regarding immigration policies, which played a central role in the election 4 years ago, the former president did not rule out the possibility of establishing detention camps and promised to deport illegal immigrants “as quickly as possible”.
In addition, the Republican was found guilty of the 34 charges brought against him, which involve covering up a payment made to porn actress Stormy Daniels during the election campaign that led him to the Presidency in 2016 so that she would not disclose an extramarital affair between the 2 .
The sentence will be released by the court on July 11, 4 days before the Republican Party National Convention that will decide the party’s candidate to run for the White House on November 5.
Vote not mandatory
In the US, no one is required by law to vote in any local, state or presidential election. According to the Constitution, voting is a right, but it is not a requirement.
electoral College
The President and Vice President of the United States are elected indirectly by the Electoral College. Each State has the same number of delegates as seats in Congress (House of Deputies and Senate). There are 538 delegates.
After you vote for president, your vote is counted at the state level. In 48 states and Washington, D.C. the winner receives all of that state’s electoral votes. Maine and Nebraska assign their electors using a proportional system.
A candidate needs the votes of at least 270 delegates – more than half of the total – to win the presidential election.
Typically, a projected winner is announced on election night in November. However, the official Electoral College vote is held in mid-December when the delegates meet.
The results for this year’s elections will be announced on January 6, 2025. The inauguration will take place on January 20.
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