Kommersant: By the end of the year, the Russian currency may fall to 100 rubles per dollar
Since the beginning of the week, the Russian currency has been testing local lows, including the yuan, which has risen to its highest since April, and the dollar has risen above 92 rubles for the first time since August. Experts interviewed by Kommersant they think dynamics due to the coincidence of a number of factors.
Leading analyst at Tsifra Broker Natalia Pyryeva recalled that the Central Bank had reduced sales of yuan to almost zero, which had affected the supply of the currency. At the same time, the yuan strengthened against the dollar after the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) eased its monetary policy, and oil prices fell significantly.
In her opinion, the ruble is not threatened with a new fall in the near future, however, she does not rule out that by the end of the year the Russian currency will fall to 100 rubles per dollar.
In turn, Valery Weisberg, director of the analytical department of the investment company Region, noted the increased volume of goods crossing the border compared to August. This circumstance may indicate a softening of problems with payments for goods or some other one-time factor affecting exports, which increases interest in the yuan.
For example, the situation with the US Treasury license to conduct transactions with the Moscow Exchange, which expires in mid-October, could put pressure on the market. If foreign trade participants are afraid that it will not be extended, as happened in August, then their increased interest in the currency is understandable. At the same time, Weisberg does not consider the decline in oil prices to be a factor influencing the ruble, because in the current conditions the dependence retains a long lag.
Economists surveyed by the Central Bank are more optimistic. On average, they believe that the Russian currency will strengthen to 90 rubles per dollar by December. However, by 2027, the dollar will rise in price to 99 rubles.
Experts previously interviewed by RBC suggested that the ruble is still affected by the decline in revenues from oil sales, which has been observed since August and may already be affecting the inflow of currency.
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