The probability that Harris will lose the US election despite having a majority of votes is increasing. Harris and Walz meet union representatives from swing states.
Washington DC – At the USDemocrats There was euphoria. The reason was that US President Joe Biden decided against running again in the presidential election in the autumn and paved the way for his vice president Kamala Harris But now there is the first setback: The chances of the former president Donald Trump for re-election to the White House are rising again. At least if you believe the poll models of a renowned US statistician.
US statisticians: Chances of Harris defeat despite majority of votes at 17.5 percent
Nate Silver, statistician and journalist, wrote on his blog “Silver Bulletin” on Wednesday (September 4) that Harris’ chances of winning a majority of voters remain good. However, according to Silver and his co-author, the probability that Harris will not win enough votes in the Electoral College despite the majority has recently increased. It is now at 17.5 percent.
Trump is catching up again: Swing states Michigan and Pennsylvania become a problem for Harris
This probability is the result of the calculation model that Silver uses to aggregate polls. According to the statistician, the setback for Harris can be explained by polls in the states of Michigan and Pennsylvania. Both are states that Trump won in 2016 and Biden in 2020. In total, 36 votes in the Electoral College will be awarded in the two states. 270 electors are needed to elect a president.
Most recently, Trump was able to reduce the gap to Harris to around two percentage points in two recent polls in Pennsylvania. This means that the former US president is once again within the statistical range of fluctuation, the scientific limit of the predictability of an election result. On the other hand, it is noticeable that both of Silver’s highly weighted polls are based on the questioning of a few hundred people. However, the trend is consistent with other weighted poll indices, such as the New York Times.
“Wars against middle-class workers” – Harris Vice President Walz attacks Trump in front of workers
For the situation in Michigan, Silver cited three polls from the last week of August that put Trump slightly ahead of Harris. However, one of them is, according to NYT also one from a Republican polling institute. Michigan is doubly difficult terrain for the Democrats: the state has been clearly Republican in the area since the collapse of heavy industry, and in the big cities, parts of the left-wing party base recently rebelled against the Biden administration’s Middle East policy and threatened to boycott the election.
Finally, Silver noted that the polls from the other contested states – so-called “swing states” – look good for Harris. Most recently, Harris and her vice presidential candidate Tim Walz focused their campaign on organized labor in the “swing states” of Michigan and Wisconsin. Walz accused Trump of waging “wars against middle-class workers” in front of union representatives in Michigan on Wednesday, the Washington Post. (kb)
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