With just over two months to go until the presidential elections in USAnot even the most daring of fortune tellers dares to predict the outcome of the tight race. However, if one thing was clear this week, it is that the Democrats, with Kamala Harris at the head, sailing with the wind in their favor.
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Exactly one month after President Joe Biden’s unexpected withdrawal from the nomination, the party made history by anointing Harris as the first African-American woman to compete for the nomination. White House.
And he did it with great fanfare. Over the course of four days, during the National Convention which took place in Chicago, former presidents, celebrities and “sacred cows” of the blue party united around a figure who has not only given them hope, but who is creating a euphoric effect by changing the very spirit of the race in which he will face former Republican President Donald Trump.
From a depressed and defensive party, Democrats have transformed themselves – in the blink of an eye – into representatives of change.
A very unusual about-face, since although they are the current occupants of the Oval Office, they behave as an opposition and alternative to the return of Trump, who is now portrayed as a resentful octogenarian disconnected from the middle class.
A message that Harris reiterated in an acceptance speech filled with references to patriotism and unity.
“In my entire career, I have had only one client: the people. On behalf of all whose history could only be written in the greatest nation on Earth, I accept your nomination to be President of the United States. Our country, with this election, has a precious and fleeting opportunity to move beyond the bitterness, cynicism, and divisive battles of the past. A chance to chart a new path forward. Let us vote for it and write together the next great chapter of the most extraordinary story ever told,” said the vice president in a concise 35-minute speech with which she made her candidacy official and which contrasted with the dystopian vision that Trump has been selling.
In my entire career, I have had only one client: the people. On behalf of all whose history could only be written in the greatest nation on Earth, I accept your nomination to be President of the United States. Our country, with this election, has a precious and fleeting opportunity to move beyond the bitterness, cynicism, and divisive battles of the past. A chance to chart a new path forward. Let us vote for it and write together the next great chapter in the most extraordinary story ever told.
Without abandoning classic causes of the Democratic Party, Harris also made it clear that she is betting on the center of the political spectrum, promising a tough foreign policy stance, strengthening the military apparatus and controlling borders.
According to David Leonhardt, political columnist for the New York Timesa strategy that would be working for him and that explains his rise in the polls.
Harris, says this analyst, has erased Biden’s deficit for two reasons.
First of all, her very identity as a woman, African American, descended from immigrants and young – compared to Trump – has made her very popular among the party’s base and the progressives, who did not identify with the president, but who are now energized by the figure of the vice president.
“The most loyal Democrats went from agony over Biden’s shaky candidacy to enthusiasm within a couple of hours. Something that is reflected in his growing support among young people, urban voters and minorities,” says Leonhardt.
This new illusion – and hence the second reasoning – has been translated into a “permission” to move towards the centre, where the independents and more moderates are, without having to pay the consequences with the base.
Something very similar to what Barack Obama did during his 2008 candidacy when some in that large half of the United States still doubted an unknown senator with a strange last name.
Where Harris’s fine line is most clearly seen is in the Middle East crisis, where she promises full support for Israel, But she shows empathy for the plight of the people in Gaza and supports a Palestinian state.
A tight race for the White House between Harris and Trump
Although Harris’s rise has been meteoric, The race for the White House remains very close. In fact, no one is calling her a favorite yet.
In all the national polls compiled by firms such as 538, Race to the White House and Real Clear Politics, Democrats have gone from a deficit of up to five points when Biden was in the race to an advantage of between two and three points now with Harris, but that is within the margin of error.
And in the 7 undecided states (swing states) that will define the elections, the differences are even smaller.
Harris has a slight lead over Trump in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and North Carolinabut the Republican continues ahead in Arizona, Nevada and Georgia.
If the election were today and the polls were right, the vice president would win the election. But it’s not today and the polls have been wrong before. Especially with Trump, who has always gotten one or two points more than the experts predicted.
Just to remember, Hillary Clinton He entered the 2016 elections with a clear advantage over the former president, but ended up losing those elections by a handful of votes. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
At the same time, it is not yet clear what impact Robert Kennedy’s withdrawal from the race and his support for Trump (announced this Friday) will have.
Many believe, in fact, that the honeymoon that exists today with Harris will begin to dissipate now that the elections enter their final stretch and the Democrats, now that the Convention is over, will lose control of the narrative they have maintained over the last few weeks.
Of course, a deluge of attacks is expected from both Trump and Republicans, who will portray her as an extreme liberal responsible for the border crisis, among other things.
The debate that will mark the pulse between the candidates
All eyes, for now, are already on the next big moment of this campaign: the debate between Harris and Trump scheduled for this September 10 and organized by the chain ABC.
In a way, it’s a test of fire for both of them. The Republican, who did not want to hold debates during his party’s primary elections, is now in urgent need of a space to counter the advance of the vice president.
But, although he already had one with Biden – the one that precipitated his resignation – both the moment and his rival are very different. Trump, says his former press secretary Melanie Grisham, “is no longer the same as he was in 2016 and 2020.”
Biden’s performance in the meeting with Trump was so bad that anything he says will be better. But expectations are higher because of how well he’s been doing lately. And if we know anything about Harris, it’s that these types of scenarios are not always her strong suit.
In fact, his verbal gaffes and incoherences are frequent, such as when he ended up talking about his fear of sharks during a campaign event in which he questioned electric batteries.
Additionally, he increasingly resorts to lies or half-truths, which, while having little impact among his base, could cost him a national audience.
Harris, for her part, has been avoiding interviews with journalists and her last debate was four years ago against then Vice President Mike Pence.
“Biden’s performance in the meeting with Trump was so bad that anything he says will be better. But expectations are higher because of how well he’s been doing lately. And if we know anything about Harris, it’s that these types of scenarios are not always her strong suit,” said Aaron Kall, a debate expert at the University of Michigan, during an interview with PBS.
We’ll have to wait and see. What is clear, at least in the picture that emerges two months before the elections, is that Harris, against all odds, is the one who is going with significant momentum.
SERGIO GOMEZ MASERI
Correspondent for EL TIEMPO
Washington
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