War in Ukraine and offensive in Kursk, but the end of the conflict remains far away. Here’s why
Ukrainian offensive in Kursk has been going on for two weeks. Where will it lead? According to the military and geopolitical analyst Andrea Gaspardoresearcher at the strategic and security consultancy firm Epidosis Srl, the scenario is complex and must be evaluated on many levels. A Fly It will take time to be able to deal with the penetration into its territory. But for solve the war much more would be needed. The interview.
Gaspardo, where does the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk come from?
The Ukrainian operation on Russian soil, which began on August 6, must be analyzed starting from a series of preliminary considerations. First of all, what happened squared the circle with respect to press leaks regarding the fact that a few weeks ago Russian Defense Secretary Andreij Belusov had called the head of the Pentagon, Lloyd Austin, telling him that Moscow had learned of a Ukrainian plan against his country and that Austin had called the military leaders in Kiev asking to cancel the operation.
What were we talking about then?
There was a theory that the Ukrainians might be working on a “dirty” atomic bomb, which fortunately turned out not to be confirmed in practice. In reality, what the Ukrainians had in mind is what we have seen in the last two weeks. If the theory is true that the Russians had learned of the Ukrainian plan but that General Valery Gerasimov did not consider the threat credible, I believe it is only a matter of time before the general’s head metaphorically rolls to the ground.
Was a military operation of this magnitude conceivable on Russian soil?
I have long wondered whether the Ukrainians would be able to conduct a new offensive in 2024 after last year’s. Kiev, as many analysts have correctly noted, is not able to operate in this sense on the front line where the war in Donbass is being fought. Intelligently, however, the Ukrainian leaders operated where Moscow did not expect an enemy initiative and where Russian forces were most vulnerable. They were good, there is no doubt, net of Russian attempts to minimize the scope of the operation.
What is being implemented is a move that is much broader than the traditional cross-border incursions of commandos and special forces…
What is happening in Kursk is not a secondary operation but a military offensive of great respect, even if it is not comparable in scope to the maneuvers of 2023. What we can say is that the Ukrainians have managed to infiltrate an area that is not very large by Russian standards but qualitatively important. An area located geographically close to critical strategic assets. Measuring the extent of the offensive to date, I would consider the Ukrainian effort in that area exhausted. This does not mean that by attacking in other points, for example in the Bryansk or Belgorod oblasts, the Ukrainians cannot, by connecting the various lines of advance, take away an even larger area from the Russians. It will be interesting to understand whether Ukraine has planned other blows of this kind, comparable to the German offensives in the Ardennes and Alsace-Lorraine between the end of 1944 and 1945.
What are the prospects for the Ukrainian salient? Some analysts have raised the possibility of encirclement, is it possible?
The Russians do not have sufficient forces present to operate an encirclement of the salient and, secondly, even the reserve forces that are arriving in the area still have command and control problems that will be solved with time. What I see for the Russians in that area is not, to use a metaphor from the Second World War, a Patton tactic but a Montgomery tactic. One should not expect an immediate counterattack, but to see the Russians contain the main lines of advance, create an overall perimeter of the Ukrainian penetration and slowly push the enemy back.
How long will it take Moscow?
Given the extent of the territory occupied by the Ukrainians today, I think that from the moment of the beginning of operations of this magnitude, the Russians will need at least a month to completely push the raiders back beyond the state borders. If the Ukrainians have planned, instead, further offensive thrusts also in the territories of the neighboring oblasts, it is obvious that the scenario will have to be reassessed and modified in light of new events.
What will be the strategic dividends of the Ukrainian move?
More than creating further areas of conflict, I don’t think the offensive will ultimately achieve anything more: the inevitable reaction of Putin and the Russians will push Moscow to make it a primary objective to expel the Ukrainians from every square meter of invaded Russian territory, whatever the cost. We have also seen that the offensive in Kursk has not greatly reduced Russia’s relentless pressure in the Donbass. And as for the long-term plans for the control of the Ukrainian areas near the border with Kursk, it is possible that the reaction to the incursion will produce a further acceleration of their development.
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