1st edition of the Firmus survey, released by the BC, contrasts with the medians of the Focus Bulletin
The 1st edition of the survey Firmus, released by BC (Central Bank) this Monday (Aug 12, 2024), shows that companies estimated that the IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index) would end 2024 and 2025 at 4% and 2026 at 3.7%, according to medians.
The data released is outdated. The survey was conducted from May 13 to 31 and had 92 respondents. The survey aims to capture the perception of non-financial companies about business and the Brazilian economy. Here is the full (PDF – 497 kB).
In the same period, calculate the BC, the medians of the Focus Bulletinwhich captures the perception of the financial market, were below those recorded by Firmus – at 3.89% for 2024, 3.77% for 2025 and 3.60% for 2026.
The surveys differed less in terms of perceptions of economic activity. Firmus’ median estimate for GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in 2024 was 2% growth, compared to an intermediate estimate of 2.01% from Focus.
The local authority states that the statistics used for Focus “were calculated considering the expectations updated exclusively during the respective 3-week collection periods of the Firmus survey”.
The survey of companies in the non-financial sector is still in the pilot stage. From November 2023 to May 2024, 3 rounds of the survey were carried out.
According to the BC, Firmus is conducted quarterly and collections generally take place in the week following the 1st Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting of each quarter.
MONETARY POLICY
The Central Bank’s Director of Economic Policy, Diogo Guillen, stated that Firmus’ results will be incorporated into the monetary authority’s decision-making process.
“It is a rich information tool, so we will incorporate it as well. It will help in understanding and analyzing the economic structure. I think it will become a relevant information tool.”said in live about the research, on the BC channel on YouTube.
Guillen also stated that, unlike what usually happens at Focus, Firmus showed a greater variation between the responses.
“When you look at companies’ projections, they diverge more. You have higher and lower projections, it’s more spread out. That goes for inflation, that goes for growth.”
LAST FOCUS
The Focus Bulletin published this Monday (August 12) shows that financial market agents raised their estimate for inflation in 2024 to 4.20%, compared to 4.12% the previous week. It was the 4th consecutive week of growth.
The projection for GDP in 2024 remained in the range, at a growth of 2.20%. Read the full (PDF – 770 kB).
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