Both the government and the opposition have declared themselves the winners in Venezuela. How trustworthy is the electoral authority – and what reasons does the opposition give for manipulation?
Caracas – The official result of the presidential election in Venezuela has raised doubts internationally. Leading politicians in the USA and Latin American countries expressed concerns, while the heads of state of Cuba, Nicaragua, China and Russia congratulated the authoritarian President Nicolás Maduro.
Both Maduro and the opposition see themselves as winners of the presidential election. The National Electoral Council (CNE) of the crisis-ridden South American country declared Maduro the winner with 51.2 percent of the vote. The opposition did not recognize the official result and claimed the presidency for its candidate – the ex-diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia.
Opposition leader María Corina Machado said González received 70 percent of the vote and Maduro only 30 percent. She cited post-election polls and four independent projections as well as the actual counting results.
Why is re-election so important for Maduro?
Any other outcome would have massive consequences for Maduro. The International Criminal Court in The Hague is investigating his government for crimes against humanity. The US filed charges against the president and several of his confidants in 2020, accusing them of drug trafficking and money laundering.
How trustworthy is the electoral commission?
Even before the vote, observers did not expect the election to be free and fair. The electoral authority, which was reappointed by the National Assembly in 2023, consists of five members, three of whom are affiliated with Chavismo and two with the opposition. The political movement founded by the late President Hugo Chávez and now continued by Maduro has ruled the country for 25 years.
What arguments does the opposition put forward to show that the process was not fair?
Maduro himself liked to describe the electoral system in Venezuela as the “most reliable, transparent and secure electoral system in the world.” The opposition also believes in the system, but they distrust those who operate the system and what happens before and after the election.
Voting in Venezuela is done via electronic voting machines. After the voter confirms his vote, the machine prints a paper receipt, which is then thrown into another ballot box. After the polling stations close, inspectors compare the electronically counted votes with the paper receipts deposited. This is checked in at least 50 percent of polling stations.
“So far, not a single list of results has been found that deviates from what the CNE has published,” said electoral system expert Eugenio Martínez, according to the BBC. But access to these lists is crucial: the opposition complains that it only had access to 40 percent of the lists of results. “All the rules have been violated here,” said presidential candidate González.
What parallels and differences are there with the last election?
Maduro’s election in 2018 was not recognized by most Western countries. The opposition did not participate due to a lack of confidence in the electoral conditions. The then parliamentary president Juan Guaidó, who was part of the opposition, declared himself interim president in 2019, but was unable to assert himself in the country – mainly because the military was behind Maduro.
Unlike then, however, this year the opposition has managed to unite behind a single candidate after years of intra-party divisions and election boycotts torpedoed their ambitions to overthrow the ruling party.
What happens next?
That is difficult to answer at first. “Our fight continues and we will not rest until the will of the Venezuelan people is respected,” said González after the results were announced. “In the next few days we will announce our measures to defend the truth, because we said we will go to the end,” said opposition leader Machado.
The political crisis that has been going on for years in the oil-rich South American country is likely to worsen once again. More than 80 percent of the population lives below the poverty line. According to UN figures, more than seven million people have left Venezuela in recent years because of poverty and violence. If Maduro remains in office for another six years, the number could rise even further. dpa
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