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China is no longer North Korea’s closest partner, but Russia. Beijing is concerned about this and is reacting helplessly.
You cannot choose your neighbors, and this applies to tenants and homeowners as well as to states. A neighbor like North Korea This is something you wouldn’t wish on your worst enemy. The country, which has been ruled by the Kim dynasty for decades, regularly tests ballistic missiles (most recently on Monday morning), threatens the Western world with its nuclear weapons and lets its own population starve.
How to deal with such a state? China, North Korea’s biggest neighbor and for a long time its closest ally, seems increasingly at a loss. For years, the government in Beijing supported international sanctions against the Kim regime, but recently used a veto to prevent UN sanctions. The reason given was that North Korea ignores sanctions anyway. An argument that shows how helpless Beijing is in dealing with Kim Jong Un has become.
Cooperation between North Korea and Russia: China acts helplessly
The recent rapprochement between Kim and Russia’s President Wladimir Putin People in Beijing are looking pretty helpless. And this despite the fact that Russia and China have grown closer together in recent years. Putin and China’s head of state Xi Jinping officially share a “boundless friendship”, and the Kremlin ruler would not be able to wage his war against Ukraine as he is currently doing without the active support from Beijing. The alliance between Kim and Putin, however, reduces the influence that Beijing still has on the Kim regime.
After more than three years of corona isolation, Kim Jong-un left his country for the first time in September, leaving China behind – and met with Putin in Russia’s Far EastIt was the beginning of a disastrous alliance: For months, Pyongyang has been supplying the Russians with weapons and ammunition that are used on the battlefields in Ukraine. In return, Putin supports the North Korean dictator with know-how and technology for his armament program.
Then, a few weeks ago, Putin returned his visit to Pyongyang: Both sides signed an agreement in which they assured each other of their mutual support in the event of an attack. The official reaction from Beijing seemed like a further admission of helplessness. “The cooperation between Russia and North Korea is a matter between two sovereign states,” said a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry. “We have no information about the matter in question.”
Pact between Putin and Kim: not in China’s interest
In fact, it is unclear what exactly the pact between Kim and Putin means, the agreement is extremely vaguely worded. This is precisely where the problem lies for Beijing, believes North Korea expert Patricia M. Kim. “There is a serious concern that North Korea could be encouraged to increase its provocations by a Russian ‘security guarantee’ or at least the appearance of one,” Kim writes in a Contribution to the US think tank Brookings Institution. “Because it assumes that the United States and its allies will react more cautiously if they have to consider a possible Russian response.”
An escalation on the Korean peninsula would hardly be in Beijing’s interest: China wants stability in its immediate neighborhood, not least because the country’s economy has started to falter. Kim is already heating up the situation, even verbally. A few months ago, he declared South Korea an enemy state. In Seoul, voices are therefore being raised that who demand their own atomic bomb. A horror scenario for China.
Kim Jong-un may be an unpleasant neighbor, but a collapse of his regime would be a catastrophe for Beijing. Many millions of refugees would then cross the border, and from China’s perspective North Korea serves as a buffer state to South Korea, where tens of thousands of US soldiers are stationed. If Kim escalates the situation, the US could be forced to further expand its involvement in the region. Russia would probably welcome the US having to fight on another battlefield; for Beijing, even more American soldiers on the peninsula would be a nightmare.
What influence does China have on North Korea?
China is pursuing the same goal as North Korea and Russia, namely an end to US global dominance. “A key difference between Beijing and its two partners is that Beijing is pursuing such a goal without setting the world on fire,” writes expert Kim. But the situation is increasingly getting out of control for Beijing. It is quite possible that Xi will soon travel to Pyongyang to bring Kim Jong-un into line – analysts are expecting a meeting between the two authoritarian rulers in 2024.
It is unclear, however, what influence Xi Jinping has on Kim. Kim has already shown that he does not take Chinese sensitivities into account: Kim last tested a nuclear bomb on September 3, 2017 – the very day that Xi Jinping received the heads of state of the BRICS alliance in Xiamen, southern China. It was a bitter loss of face for the Chinese head of state, and one for which he has hardly forgiven the North Korean dictator.
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