Timing being what it is, this column was written before the first Biden-Trump debate. So if you’re looking for an expert opinion on the efficacy of different strategies and tactics, you’re in the wrong place. However, it seems safe to predict that Donald Trump — a criminal who has been found civilly liable for sexual assault and defamation — will try to make much of the debate about crime. It also seems safe to predict that almost everything he says about crime (and other issues, like the economy) will be highly misleading, if not outright false, despite the prospect of real-time fact-checking after the fact.
After all, Trump and his allies have spent months falsely portraying the United States as a nation terrorized by a wave of violent crime, pointing the finger at immigrants and claiming that President Joe Biden is responsible. Here’s what’s actually happened: We experienced a significant increase in homicides in 2020 during the Covid pandemic, when Trump was in the White House. After Biden replaced him, the homicide rate first plateaued, then began a sharp decline that appears to be continuing. Murders declined rapidly in 2023 and appear to have plummeted even further this year. The homicide rate in 2024 is likely to turn out to be lower than it was in any of the years of Trump’s presidency. Or put another way, if they want to play by the MAGA rules, they’ll be in a position to do so. [siglas en inglés de Haz que Estados Unidos vuelva a ser grande]according to which the president is responsible for the national crime rates during his term, then it would have to be said that Biden ended Trump’s crime wave.
Prominent Trump supporters they insist that the good news about crime is fake. However, while there is some room for debate in defining what constitutes violent crime, murder is murder, which is why I focus on homicide numbers. And crime data is compiled from reports by many police departments; are they all involved in a deep state conspiracy?
The truth is that the recent history of crime in the United States is very encouraging. The social disruption caused by the pandemic caused a temporary increase in violent crime, but our society quickly regained its footing, and our cities are probably as safe as ever. Still, you might say, let’s forget about the facts, which have a well-known liberal bias. What about feelings? Don’t Americans live in constant fear of crime? No, it’s not like that. People may tell interviewers that they believe crime is getting worse; This is almost always the case (crime plummeted between the early 1990s and the mid-2010s, but most Americans consistently said it was rising). But if you look at how people behave, it seems that they feel quite safe lately.
To see what I mean, consider an example of a well-known person who claims to be terrified. The other day, on a show about border security, Fox News host Maria Bartiromo declared, “I don’t walk anywhere in New York anymore.” Maybe that’s how she really feels, in which case I feel sorry for her and for all the experiences she’s missing out on. Contrary to what many people seem to believe, New York is not, in fact, an urban hellhole; I walk around the city all the time—including in neighborhoods that are home to large immigrant communities—and it’s a most cheerful place these days, its sidewalks filled with other people doing the same thing I’m doing.
But don’t take my word for it. Mobile phone data allows investigators to follow pedestrian traffic in urban centers. In 2023, weekday traffic was still well below pre-pandemic levels, presumably reflecting fewer people commuting to downtown offices due to increased teleworking. But weekend foot traffic, driven by people choosing to take advantage of urban amenities, had almost completely recovered, which wouldn’t happen if shoppers, tourists and others were terrified of crime. In fact, this time last year, weekend foot traffic in midtown Manhattan, where Fox News is based, was higher than before the pandemic.
Trump may not make up his crime statistics, but I think in this campaign he will never admit that violent crime is down a lot, and he will continue to focus on a few widely reported stories, examples of terrible crimes committed by immigrants.
Responding to such stories is delicate; no one wants to downplay the horror of a single violent crime, no matter who commits it. But if we are going to vilify entire groups of people for crimes committed by a few members of those groups, where do we stop? For what it’s worth, a new study from the right-leaning Cato Institute finds that in Texas, immigrants without legal status in the country are less likely to be convicted of murder than native-born people.
The decline in the violent crime rate is, in fact, a major success for Biden. And the president deserves some credit for that success. Among other things, the American Rescue Plan included a lot of aid to state and local governments, which may have encouraged additional spending on law enforcement. But any way you look at it, crime should be considered one of Biden’s strengths, not a weakness.
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