06/27/2024 – 8:52
O central bank improved its economic growth projection in 2024 to 2.3%, compared to 1.9% estimated in March, according to the Quarterly Inflation Report released this Thursday, 27th.
Regarding the conduct of basic interest rates, the BC reiterated the message from the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) that monetary policy must remain contractionary for a sufficient time at a level that consolidates not only the disinflation process but also the anchoring of expectations around your goals.
Government projection is higher
The BC’s projection is below that predicted by the government. The Ministry of Finance predicts a 2.5% GDP expansion this year, despite observing uncertainties related to the effects of the disaster caused by the rains in Rio Grande do Sul.
The market, according to the most recent Focus survey, estimates that the economy will grow 2.09% in 2024. For 2025, the expansion projection is 2.8%.
The forecast for inflation measured by the IPCA increased from 3.50% to 3.70% in 2024 and from 3.10% to 3.20% in 2025. The target set by the government for inflation is 3%, with tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points.
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