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Will the AfD conquer the town halls in the local elections in Thuringia? A prediction is difficult. Isolated surveys provide initial indications.
Erfurt – On May 26, around 1.7 million people are called upon to vote in the local elections in Thuringia. The focus will be on the performance of the AfDwhich is partly deeply rooted in the municipalities. The local elections are therefore also seen as a mood test for the state elections in just under three months.
Local elections in Thuringia have so far been the domain of the CDU. But this time things are different. The CDU sees itself challenged by an AfD that is strong in the polls, with its front man Björn Höcke So can the Höcke party, which the state’s Office for the Protection of the Constitution has classified as proven right-wing extremist, set the course for the state elections in the local elections?
How the AfD is doing in polls ahead of the local elections in Thuringia
However, it is difficult to make a forecast. This is mainly because the regional conditions and issues as well as the personalities of the individual candidates are simply too different. At least in some cases it is possible to take a look at concrete figures. It is therefore definitely worth taking a look at individual surveys.
According to the media, there are at least four surveys. In the mayoral elections in the independent cities of Erfurt and Gera, the data suggests that the AfD candidates are not in the lead. In Erfurt, Stefan Möller has to make do with second place behind Andreas Bausewein (SPD). And in Gera? There, Wieland Altenkirch is only in third place behind Julian Vonarb (independent/Gera Alliance) and Kurt Danneberg.
Mayoral election Erfurt
Andreas Bausewein (SPD) | 33 |
Stefan Möller (AfD) | 21 |
Andreas Horn (CDU) | 19 |
Matthias Bärwolff (The Left) | 13 |
Jana Rötsch (MWS) | 10 |
David Maicher (Greens) | 4 |
Mayoral election Gera
Julian Vonarb (independent) | 42 |
Kurt Dannenberg (CDU) | 27 |
Wieland Altenkirch (AfD) | 20 |
Yves Berlinghoff (independent) | 7 |
David Kaschta (The Party) | 4 |
AfD lags behind CDU in polls for local elections in Thuringia
So what is the situation for the AfD in the two districts of Eichsfeld and Greiz? In both cases, according to surveys, Höcke’s party only comes in second place. Marion Fant from the CDU dominates in Eichsfeld, while Ulli Schäfer (CDU) is just ahead in Greiz.
It should be noted, however, that the AfD did not run in the 2018 election in Greiz and the CDU received 65.9 percent in the first round. It must also be remembered that the statistical fluctuation range of 4.5 percent in the current polls is relatively large. In all cases, one thing is clear: If there is no majority, the necessary runoff elections will take place at the same time as the European elections on June 9th.
District elections in Eichsfeld district
Marion Frant (CDU) | 49 |
Marcel König (independent, nominated by the AfD) | 27 |
Michael Gaßmann (Free Voters) | 8th |
Heiko Steinecke (DIE) | 7 |
Steffen Hildebrandt (FDP, supported by SPD) | 5 |
Nicole Siebert-Kobert (MfH) | 4 |
District election Greiz district
Ulli Schäfer (CDU) | 39 |
Kerstin Müller (AfD) | 31 |
Holger Steiniger (The Left) | 11 |
Jens Geissler (IWA) | 10 |
Alexander Zill (independent) | 9 |
The AfD has become increasingly stronger in Thuringia in recent years
In the local elections in Thuringia six years ago, the AfD received 10.2 percent. However, the Thuringian regional association is now much stronger. In the state elections in October 2019, the AfD was the second strongest force with more than 23 percent, and in the Polls for the upcoming election The party was recently at around 30 percent.
Most recently, the district council elections in the Saale-Orla district and in Sonneberg made headlines. In the Saale-Orla district, the CDU candidate Christian Herrgott narrowly defeated the AfD in the runoff election in January, after the AfD politician Robert Sesselmann in the district of Sonneberg had won the first district administrator post for the party nationwide. (cs/dpa/afp)
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