President accelerated the use of physiological tools and less faithful parties ended up giving more votes in favor of Planalto
The government's relationship with the Chamber of Deputies improved after the government accelerated the release of amendments and handed over ministries to Centrão groups.
The improvement can be seen in the increase in the government rate (percentage of votes that follow the government's guidance) of deputies from allied parties from June onwards. The higher the government rate, the more the deputies of that party voted in accordance with the government's interests.
This is what an unprecedented survey of the Power360 with the accumulated government rate, day by day, of the deputies of the allied base parties (read more about the methodology below).
The data above was collected until December 11, but the government continues to rely on this type of negotiations to try to pass a sprint of important projects on the economic agenda this week, such as the last phase of the tax reform, the 2024 Budget and the MP subsidy for the ICMS.
For example, the approval of the Social Fund to fund high school programs on Wednesday (Dec 13, 2023) had 45 votes from União Brasil and 38 from the PP. The votes of less faithful allied parties were essential for approval.
Government rate
O Power360 calculated the government rate of all deputies in the 1st and 2nd semester.
The government rate considering all votes given by federal deputies went from 65.1% in the 1st semester for 75.4% in the 2nd semester (here counting only votes from the 2nd semester and not the entire year).
The 1st graph of this text shows with data a series of disagreements between the government and the allied base in the 1st semester.
It is possible to observe that the PT continues to vote with the government, no matter when or what the agenda is. On the side of “occasional allies“, the behavior is different: there are practically parallel lines with simultaneous rises and falls in the rate of governmentism.
One way to read the phenomenon is that the acronyms respond to the same incentives. They vote more with the government when releasing amendments and handing over ministries and vote less on issues that are more important to a conservative support base.
The inconstancy of these parties caused defeats for the government on issues dear to the Planalto such as the sanitation framework and the time frame.
The “messages” in these votes came together with demands for the release of parliamentary amendments and greater representation of political groups in the Chamber of Deputies in ministries.
“This means that politics continues to be made. And that there is, despite everything that is said about polarization, room for negotiation”, says George Avelino, coordinator of FGV's Center for Public Sector Politics and Economics.
The troubled relationship with the parties, in fact, became more stable following the commitment of R$8.6 billion on the eve of the Tax Reform.
PSD, MDB, Republicans, PP and União Brasil have, at the same time, a significant increase in the rate of governmentism following the vote.
The 2nd semester, with appointments of ministers from the PP, Republicans and União Brasil, had a higher government rate.
Not very faithful, but important
The lifting of the Power360 shows that some of the occasional allies who were less loyal to the government were those who delivered the most votes in the Chamber of Deputies.
It seems unintuitive that parties with low loyalty deliver more votes, but this happens due to the difference in the size of the benches of each party.
União Brasil is the greatest example of the phenomenon. Of the parties with ministries, it is the least loyal: its deputies together have a 68% pro-government rate. On the other hand, as it has the 2nd largest bench in the Chamber, it delivered, as of December 11, 6,085 votes in favor of the government.
União Brasil only loses in number of votes to the PT, whose deputies cast 98% of the votes following the government's guidance.
PP (government rate of 74%), PSD (85%) and Republicans (76%) follow the list of parties that delivered the most votes to approve measures of interest to the government.
In 6th place is, unusually, Bolsonaro's PL. The party is mostly oppositionist (only 32% pro-government), but has the largest bench in the Chamber: it elected 99 deputies and currently has 96 in office.
With a bench that is twice the size of several of the government's most important allies, the PL's “dissident” vote has been fundamental for the approval of important government agendas.
“Bolsonarism is an important part, but it doesn't rule the PL. Delivering 32% of PL votes to the government is a lot. It gives more than 30 votes, much more than the entire PC do B bench”, says Avelino, researcher at FGV.
The government's most loyal allies are: PC do B, PV, PSB and PDT. All have a government rate above 90%. With small benches, however, they contribute less to government projects.
The 10+ government officials
There is only 1 deputy who is not from the PT on the list of those who vote the most following the government's guidance. They were not considered in the ranking deputies participating in less than 50 votes.
The 10+ oppositionists
The PL of Bolsonaro leads the votes against the government's guidance.
Access here a table that allows you to consult the government rate of all deputies, including those who voted a few times.
METHODOLOGY
O Power360 used the Chamber's open data to compare more than 100,000 votes cast by congressmen this year, from January 1st to December 11th, with the 283 guidelines made by the government. Votes in which the government did not provide guidance were disregarded. Abstentions and obstructions were considered votes that did not follow the government.
The data must be read with caution. When counting the total votes cast by all parties, both very important votes and others that are less vital to the government are counted.
In any case, they are a powerful indication of how allies behave in moments when Planalto decides to take a position in the Chamber.
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