The Government has had a very hard three months. Until the last minute, until Junts sent a message after Pedro Sánchez’s speech in which he used agreed key words such as “negotiation”, and not “dialogue”, the investiture was not closed. During all this time, the Executive has been on the defensive. The amnesty occupied everything. The Executive was silent so as not to harm the negotiation. The opposition showed its muscle with very powerful mobilizations in the streets. But this week, as analyzed by several leaders of the Government and the PSOE, and even some of the opposition admit, things have changed a lot.
The Executive has taken office, the ministers have met, the coalition has begun to move ―without Podemos in the Government for the first time― and Pedro Sánchez has made his first trip, to Israel, with strong controversy due to the diplomatic conflict that has occurred. unleashed by Benjamin Netanyahu by accusing the Spanish and Belgian Prime Ministers, Alexander de Croo, of “supporting terrorism” by Hamas for their criticism of the indiscriminate bombings of the civilian population. After three months of negotiation and silence, which gave all the room to the opposition in its offensive against the amnesty, Sánchez and his team have once again occupied all the space, the main objective of any Government.
Meanwhile, the opposition is focused on reorganizing itself, especially the PP, with the changes in its leadership. In some sectors of the PP they are convinced that the legislature will be short, and, therefore, they believe that Alberto Núñez Feijóo must maintain maximum pressure. The idea is that the majority is so fragile that it will not hold out, and then the second chance will come for the PP, which sees how throughout the world there seems to be a conservative wave – Argentina and Holland are the latest examples – which, however, in Spain has not been enough to remove the left from power.
The PP is betting on the European elections in June as the great second opportunity to show muscle against Sánchez. But in La Moncloa they handle a very different calculation. “There is only one thing more difficult than setting up this investiture, and that is taking it down. Four years of stability are coming and a much longer term than the PP thinks,” they point out in those around the president. “It’s going to take a long time for Feijóo, it’s impossible to maintain that tension for four years, he’ll have to think about it carefully, he has to get away from Vox,” summarizes a minister.
The trip to Israel, which was highly thought of as a way to show that there is already a Government and with which Sánchez recovers his international profile and reinforces the idea that the legislature is going long, has once again generated great controversy with the opposition . In Belgium, the diplomatic crisis with Israel, exactly the same as the Spanish one – the Netanyahu Government makes the same accusation of collusion with terrorists against Sánchez and De Croo – has generated little media or political controversy, with the exception of some criticism from the Flemish nationalists of the N-VA, who accuse the prime minister of seeking the Arab vote, reports Silvia Ayuso. But in Spain the controversy has grown and both Feijóo and Santiago Abascal, leader of Vox, have harshly attacked the president for criticizing Israel’s indiscriminate bombings and because Hamas has made a statement praising the “bold stance” of the Spanish prime minister. and from the Belgian.
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Supported by his Foreign Minister, José Manuel Albares, who was categorical in denying Israel’s accusations of collusion with terrorism, Sánchez and his team are outraged by the PP, which they accuse of siding with foreign governments in every crisis, whether the one from Algeria or this one. But beyond this tension with the PP, in La Moncloa they are convinced that Sánchez, by denouncing in Israel, in front of Netanyahu, the “unbearable” number of Palestinian deaths – more than 14,000, more than 5,000 of them minors, according to Gazan health authorities―, is placed where the majority of Spaniards are, including a good part of the PP or Vox voters. “Spanish society has always been pro-Palestinian, also on the right. We are all seeing the images every day, the bloody children; The president has connected with that,” says a minister.
Another remembers that the PP’s position was always similar to the one that Sánchez now defends, and, in fact, Mariano Rajoy had significant tensions with Israel. So much so that in 2014, with the PP governing with an absolute majority, Congress approved, with the votes of the PSOE and the PP, which agreed on the text, a bill in which it was stated: “The Congress of Deputies urges the Government to recognize Palestine as a State.” It is José María Aznar, now out of the Government, and then Esperanza Aguirre and now Isabel Díaz Ayuso, who are turning towards a PP position much closer to the Israeli right, now in power with Netanyahu. In fact, Feijóo this Saturday had to balance, and while he criticized Sánchez for the tension with Israel, he also defended compliance with humanitarian law and said that “the Palestinian people have the right to live in peace”, something very similar to what what the president said.
During the trip, Sánchez and De Croo were very convinced that their position is the one that is at the heart of European societies and is the one that will end up being imposed. That is, outright condemnation of Hamas – they did it in every intervention, and they also went to Kibbutz Beeri, the epicenter of the massacre of October 7, and spoke with survivors and relatives of those kidnapped – but at the same time criticism of Israel for the indiscriminate bombings and for failing to protect civilians, especially children. “Violence only leads to more violence, the cycle must be stopped. “This conflict does not have a military solution,” the two said.
Sánchez and De Croo, who are not from the same political current (the Belgian is liberal), were equally harsh in Rafah, on Egypt’s border with Gaza, demanding that Israel seek a definitive ceasefire and stop the deaths of innocent But they also expressed solidarity with the attacked Israelis, and Sánchez said that he had been moved by a young survivor who had returned to the kibbutz with the intention of rebuilding it. “That young man just wants to live in peace where he belongs,” he summarized. Sánchez, on the plane, seemed very convinced that this position is what the majority of Spanish and European society wants. In La Moncloa they do not give importance to the Hamas statement, because Sánchez has condemned the attacks and will continue to do so. On the contrary, they believe that the president has made his position very clear and it is Netanyahu who has gone on a rampage by accusing him of being with the terrorists.
The Executive will now multiply its political and economic agenda, confident of being able to change the conversation from the single issue of amnesty. There will still be a lot of talk, and more so this week, when Santos Cerdán (PSOE) and Carles Puigdemont (Junts) are scheduled to meet in Geneva for the first time with the international verifier. But the agenda of a Government that is already in full office will begin to compete with the issue that interests the opposition the most. This Sunday Sánchez takes part in an event in Madrid to pay tribute to the militants and the people’s houses, in which former president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero will also take part. And this week, in which Felipe VI will inaugurate the legislature with a solemn ceremony, negotiations will begin with the employers’ association for the increase in the minimum wage in 2024, which will be led by Yolanda Díaz’s team, and there will be deployment of investments with the inauguration of the variant of Pajares with the King and Sánchez, in addition to Óscar Puente, the new minister, one of the lightning rods that the president has placed so that it does not happen like the previous legislature, when all the darts were against him. The main shield will be Félix Bolaños, the strong man of the Government, but the spokesperson, Pilar Alegría, and others will also be there for this task.
The first Council of Ministers also demonstrated that, without Podemos in the Executive, things are going to be different. The atmosphere changed a lot, some veterans point out. The coalition has vowed to avoid permanent anger and wage political battles, which there will be strong ones, internally. Everything is beginning to rearrange itself after months of holding our breath in the face of the risk of a repeat election. The decisive question to see everyone’s strategies – will the legislature last? – does not yet have an easy answer. But all of Sánchez’s movements seem designed to give a resounding answer: this is going to be a long time.
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