The Popular Party would win the general elections if they were held today, according to the November barometer of the Center for Sociological Research, made public this Friday. The party led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo achieved 33.9% of voting intentions, 1.7 points more than last month. It would be followed by the PSOE, which is finalizing the agreements to attempt the investiture of Pedro Sánchez as President of the Government, with 31.3% of support, and which drops 1.3 points. Sumar and Vox occupy the third and fourth position in voters’ preference. The party led by Yolanda Díaz, and a member of the PSOE, drops to 11.8% of support, almost one point less, and Santiago Abascal’s party remains at a similar result to the previous month, 10%. The Catalan independence groups ERC and Junts, which have achieved great prominence in the negotiation of a future PSOE and Sumar Government, would obtain very similar results to last month, 1.9% and 1.4%, respectively in the set of the vote of all of Spain. For the first time, Feijóo surpasses Sánchez and Díaz in the citizen evaluation, although neither of them achieves approval.
This is the second barometer published by the CIS in which Pedro Sánchez is the candidate for the investiture and in which the amnesty for those accused of the processes occupies the political debate. In October, the center’s poll chaired by José Félix Tezanos gave a tie to the PP and the PSOE, although the socialists were already down almost one point. In November, the PP achieved an advantage over the PSOE of 2.6 points. When adding the supports, the block on the right is ahead of the block on the left by almost one point (0.8). In October the difference was three points in favor of the left. According to November data, the PP (33.9%) and Vox (10%) would gather 43.9% of the votes, compared to 43.1% for PSOE (31.3%) and Sumar (11.8%). %).
The survey was made public on the day that the socialists formalized the pact to obtain the support of the PNV and the Canarian Coalition, so that the socialists have already accumulated the commitment of 179 of the 350 deputies in Congress, enough for Sánchez to achieve the investiture in the first vote in Congress. The survey does not include any questions about the pacts that the PSOE is reaching with the Catalan independentists regarding an amnesty for the leaders of the October 2017 secession attempt.
The field work was carried out between October 31 and November 6, as reported by the CIS. Its 4,009 interviews began to take place the day Princess Leonor swore the Constitution in Congress and continued, already on November 1, with Sánchez’s agreement with the Catalan president Pere Aragonès on the amnesty law, a movement with that ERC committed to supporting the investiture of the socialist candidate. In the following days, Spanish politics was attentive to the negotiations with Junts and the results of the parties’ consultations with their bases. Those of the PSOE ratified the agreement with Sumar and the independence movement with a support of 87%. Those of Podemos supported a reinforcement of their autonomy against Sumar with 96% of the votes.
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As for political leaders, Pedro Sánchez continues to be the favorite to occupy the Presidency of the Government, with 27.7% support, compared to the 21% who would like the leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, to occupy La Moncloa. 6.6% of those surveyed prefer Yolanda Díaz, head of Sumar’s list, and 5.6% point to the leader of Vox, Santiago Abascal. However, Feijóo has surpassed Sánchez for the first time in the grade given to him by citizens. Thus, the leader of the PP obtains an average grade of 4.45 out of 10, compared to 4.31 for the socialist. Díaz, until now the best rated by citizens, drops to third position, with a 4.29. Abascal occupies fourth place, with 3.03.
The November barometer of 40dB. for EL PAÍS and SER, published this Monday, detects a loss of steam on the part of the socialists against the PP since 23-J. Despite this improvement in Núñez Feijóo’s party, the survey—whose internal data can be consulted on the websites of both media—suggests that the entire right wing would still not reach an absolute majority in Congress, due to the poor performance of Vox. .
Against the time change
The November CIS survey also asks about other topics, such as time change, the latest war conflicts or health care. Regarding the need to put an end to setting the clocks back or forward twice a year, 65.8% say that they would like to put an end to changing the time and 22.5% want to continue as before, changing the clock. in autumn and spring. In the event that one is maintained, 68.5% choose the summer one, compared to 21.5% who would prefer the winter one.
78.5% of those surveyed claim to be very worried or quite worried about “the war in the Middle East”, the latest escalation of which began on October 7, while 9.3% said they were little or not at all worried. The level of concern about this conflict is somewhat higher than about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022 and about which 71.8% said they were very worried or quite worried. Those surveyed who were little or not at all concerned about this latest conflict stood at 23.2%.
With respect to other issues, such as health care, the vast majority, 89.1%, state that the budget for health care expenses should be increased and 54.4% prefer that competence over health remain in the hands of the autonomous communities, compared to 32.2% who prefer it to be exercised by the central government.
The survey once again reflects the distance between citizens’ opinions on the country’s economic situation and their own. While 59.7% believe that their personal economic situation is very good or good, 64.2% believe that the general economic situation in Spain is bad or very bad.
Economic issues and health, in fact, are the main citizen concerns. When asked what Spain’s main problem is, 22.9% spontaneously respond that it is unemployment, while 22.8% answer that it is the economic crisis. In third position (19.9%) is healthcare. Right after are “political problems in general” (18.6%). But the problem that is climbing the most positions, becoming the fifth concern of citizens, is immigration, which coincides with the worsening of the migration crisis in the Canary Islands. If you ask which one affects the respondents the most, they establish this order: the crisis, health, unemployment, quality of employment, education, political problems, climate change, housing…
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