Ukraine is making slow progress in its counteroffensive in the south. The aim is to cut off the land bridge to the Crimea. The fighting could escalate.
Kiev/Moscow – For some time now, Ukraine has seemed to be launching its counter-offensive in the Ukraine war to be able to advance with significantly more power. According to its own statements, the Ukrainian army has had several successes in its attacks on the heavily fortified Russian defense lines in the southern Zaporizhia region in the past few days. The goal is to advance to the Sea of Azov, about 80 kilometers away, and thus the land connection to the Crimea cut off, or at least advance enough to put the peninsula within range of Ukrainian artillery.
Ukraine’s counter-offensive is apparently aimed at severing the so-called land bridge between Russian-occupied Ukraine and the Crimean peninsula, former US General Ben Hodges told the US news magazine Newsweek. Should Ukraine succeed in doing this, it would be a major setback for Russia – logistically, but above all symbolically.
Crimea as target: “Two Bridges Attack” of Ukraine
A second goal for Ukraine is the approximately 19-kilometer-long Kerch Bridge between Russia and the Moscow occupied Crimea. Should the Kerch Bridge be damaged again, according to Hodges, the situation would change again decisively. US military expert Dan Rice had previously spoken of a “two-bridge attack” on Ukraine. In August, another explosion occurred at the Kerch Bridge. The Ukrainian military had already damaged the bridge several times in attacks in the past.
“I sometimes hear from the Pentagon that we want to help push back the Russians,” Hodges said. “No, it’s not about pushing them back. It’s about isolating Crimea and then being able to deploy enough long-range weapons.” In that case, it would no longer be possible for the Russian Navy and Air Force to operate from there.
Ukrainian forces are currently fighting their way through the fortified defense lines in southern Ukraine. In doing so, Kiev’s units have to make their way through extensive minefields under artillery fire, which the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as one reason why the operation is going “slower than desired”.
Crimea is of enormous importance for Russia and Ukraine
Crimea is of enormous importance for both sides in the Ukraine war. Kiev has repeatedly emphasized its determination to want to recapture Crimea militarily. “It started with Crimea, it will end with Crimea,” Zelenskyy said in the summer of 2022. The West, on the other hand, has recently expressed concern about these plans. The USA probably doesn’t seriously believe in a Ukrainian success. In February, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said control of Crimea was a red line for the Kremlin.
Indeed, for Russia, Crimea is a territory that must be defended at any cost and by any means. The use of tactical nuclear weapons seems conceivable here. After all, Russia’s nuclear doctrine suggests that it can resort to weapons of mass destruction when “the very existence of the state is in jeopardy.” For Western heads of state and government, the nuclear escalation is the most important issue. A direct confrontation between the Nato and Russia, therefore, do not want to risk them under any circumstances.
Retaking Crimea for US military experts with no alternative
However, Blinken also hinted that if Crimea were threatened to be lost, Vladimir Putin could be forced to negotiate. In any case, for ex-General Ben Hodges there is no alternative to recapturing Crimea: “Ukrainians know they will never be safeas long as Russia occupies Crimea,” he told the newspaper Newsweek. “They know that Russia, with its navy and air force, can launch attacks from Crimea and launch missiles against all seaports in Ukraine.”
Hodges said he was surprised at how many people casually said Crimea should be left to Russia for the sake of peace. “Can you imagine telling the Germans to give up the former East German states for the sake of peace? Or tell the US to return Alaska to Russia for the sake of peace? This is ridiculous, but for some reason people are ready to tell Ukraine to give up Crimea.” (cs)
#Crimea #crucial #Ukraine #war