Türkiye has a new appointment with the polls this May 28. This is the second round of the presidential elections between the current president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the opposition leader, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu. Both candidates will have a new face-to-face after a first few elections that were hard-fought and loaded with accusations from both sides. The economy and reconstruction after the devastating earthquakes are the main topics on the agenda.
In Turkey, the confirmation of the results lasted until the next day. After the long wait, it became known that the current president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the opposition leader, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, would face each other in a new electoral date on May 28.
For the current president, a novelty. In his previous presidential elections, Erdogan had won more than half of the votes. Some results that had exempted him from a second round. This time, the president got 49.51% of the votes
Instead, second place for Kiliçdaroglu, with 44.88% of the votes, opens up hope for the opposition to remove Erdogan from power after two decades in office. The politician has directed and personified an alliance of various detractors of the president.
However, the objective of the alliance is complex in this second round. Former candidate Sinan Ogan, who came in third with 5.2% of the vote, announced that he will support the current president for re-election. Although the ultranationalist had managed to obtain the support of many citizens who opposed various measures of the president, the politician justified his support under the argument of providing stability to the country.
Thus, a victory for the opposition candidate is not so clear. various analysts, Like Susana Magana, they see that the balance is tilted towards Erdogan.
“I think we already see a victory almost sung by someone who has been in power for two decades. It would be expected that he will get the almost three million votes that Sinan Ogan obtained and that his followers will support the request to vote in favor of the alliance that Erdogan represents”, he assured for France 24.
However, the Turks will have the last word this Sunday. In this new appointment, there are some 60 million eligible voters. On that day, whoever gets the most votes will be the president of the country for the next five years.
Erdogan, the familiar face that clings to power
Entire generations have seen only one face in power in Turkey. Erdogan has held the reins of the country for the past two decades. At first, as prime minister. Later, as president. Victories that he achieved after a series of measures that concentrated power in said figure and that have been classified as authoritarian.
Erdogan, 69, is the leader of the Justice and Development Party (AKP). His enormous popularity is due, in large part, to an economic boom that hit the country during the first years of his mandate. The leader promoted multiple infrastructure projects and achieved relative financial stability.
During his years in power, he has forged an image of a charismatic and powerful leader. He has earned the support of a good part of the most conservative society in the country, in part, due to his restrictive measures on the rights of the LGBTIQ + community. Also for showing himself as a great defender of Islam, in a country with a large Muslim majority.
His government has been accused of using anti-terrorism laws to detain and prosecute activists, journalists and opposition politicians. In addition, the connection established by Erdogan between religion and politics, in a given country as secular, has led to the marginalization of many of those who criticize his policies.
Erdogan’s image remains strongly endorsed in Türkiye. However, his management of the February earthquakes and the weakening of the country’s economy have contributed to putting him in a more fragile position in these new elections.
Kiliçdaroglu, the conciliatory opponent
His leadership managed to shape an opposition coalition unlike any seen in Turkey since Erdogan came to power. He is the leader of the Republican People’s Party and represents the so-called National Alliance.
The 74-year-old candidate is a bureaucrat from the Anatolian region and comes from an Alevi family, an ethnic and religious minority in Turkey. He has a background in economics and finance and has held various positions in the public sector.
Kiliçdaroglu has made his way into Turkish politics as a staunch critic of Erdogan. And also from his bench. He has been a critic of the AKP, denouncing alleged cases of corruption by the ruling party.
In his political journey, he has been the victim of physical attacks and threats from groups such as the Kurdish PKK militia and the Islamic State (ISIS).
His character has earned him the nickname ‘democratic uncle’ or even ‘Gandhi-Kemal’. He has tried to show himself as a pacifying and conciliatory figure. Thus, he has sought to approach different political and religious sectors, even adopting a moderate tone towards conservative Muslims and Kurdish minorities.
Despite the fact that it has been his differentiating mark, some see these characteristics as a weakness to face a leadership as radically different as Erdogan’s.
Kiliçdaroglu has sought to gain two points on which Erdogan seems to be faltering: the economy and the democratic system. He advocates restoring parliamentary democracy, cutting taxes and pushing for orthodox economic policies.
Elections marked by the economic crisis and reconstruction after the earthquakes
If the infrastructure and the economy were two decisive elements in Erdogan’s popularity, now, after the earthquakes that shook the country, they have shaken his leadership. The earthquake produced close to 50,000 fatalities and left thousands of people displaced.
So, eThe president recognized its magnitude and promised a reconstruction. But His detractors attribute a great responsibility for the consequences of the earthquake due to the handling of the crisis and the low quality of the constructions. They also accuse him of a long plot of corruption in the development of said structures.
More than 214,000 buildings in 11 provinces are estimated to have been destroyed and reconstruction costs have already exceeded $100 billion, according to estimates by the World Bank, the UN, the European Union and the Turkish government. The two candidates aim to be the ideal leader to rebuild Turkey from one of its worst tragedies.
In parallel, the economic outlook is far from favourable. The Turkish currency is devalued by 30% and year-on-year inflation in Turkey reached 85% during 2022.
His critics attribute the responsibility for the country’s economic situation to his monetary policy. Partly due to the decrease in interest rates nine times, from 19% in 2021 to 8% today.
Although the numbers do not favor Erdogan on paper, nor did the poll predictions – which cast his opponent as the winner – the current president continues to defy the statistics.
Will the opposition manage to unite? Will the Turks opt for change or continuity? At the polls, the new course of the nation will be defined, afflicted by the devastating earthquakes of February 6.
With AP, AFP, Reuters and local media
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