This Sunday, an election that gripped Brazil long before official campaigns began came to a dramatic end. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, better known as Lula, surpassed incumbent Jair Bolsonaro with 50.9% of the vote compared to 49.1% of Bolsonaro.
Both candidates harbor a genuine hatred for each other, and the tough campaign has left the country more polarized than ever. Lula now faces the mammoth task of bringing this fractured nation back together.
(Also read: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the presidency of Brazil for the third time)
The face of Brazilian leftist politics for more than three decades, Lula served as president from 2003 to 2010, and his social policies helped address Brazil’s stark inequality and lifted millions out of poverty.
He left office with sky-high approval ratings. However, the Workers’ Party (PT) he founded was embroiled in a series of corruption scandals, ultimately resulting in his imprisonment in 2018 (although his conviction was overturned in 2019).
Bolsonaro came to power in 2018 after a long career as a fringe politician. His anti-establishment and socially conservative message struck a chord with a population exhausted by economic stagnation, widespread corruption and the inefficiencies of the PT government.
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He is a highly divisive figure due to his incendiary rhetoric against minorities and political opponents, his alleged mismanagement of the covid-19 pandemic, and his pursuit of economic development in the Amazon rainforest, despite the environmental damage it causes.
While many pollsters predicted a comfortable lead for Lula in the first round, with some even declaring the former president would score an outright victory, the result was much closer than expected, with Bolsonaro finishing just 5% behind Lula.
In addition, many of Bolsonaro’s allies were elected to Congress, the Senate, and governorships across the country, which it could inhibit Lula’s ability to govern effectively through a coalition.
Challenges of Lula da Silva
The results of both rounds of voting raise several interesting questions about the political future of Brazil.
The first point to mention is that although Lula has won, Bolsonaro, and Bolsonaroism more broadly, are not going anywhere. Bolsonaro’s party, the Liberal Party (PL), is the largest in Congress and the Senate, while the Bolsonaristas won the governorship of the key states of Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais and seven other states.
This was achieved despite an unfavorable economic climate, widely perceived mismanagement of the pandemic, and what is undoubtedly an anti-presidential wave across Latin America (Bolsonaro’s loss marks the 15th consecutive electoral loss for a sitting president). in the region).
(Also: What does the victory of Lula da Silva represent for the left in Latin America?)
Although Lula has won, Bolsonaro, and Bolsonarism more broadly, are not going anywhere
The movement led by Bolsonaro is highly sophisticated and effectively uses social media and fake news campaigns to communicate with supporters and discredit opponents.
Due to the strong political representation of the right and the extreme right, Lula is likely to be forced to water down some of his policies that are distasteful to the opposition, such as increasing environmental protections or state-funded infrastructure projects.
Bolsonaro’s message, combining anti-establishment sentiment, social conservatism and family values, has clearly resonated with much of Brazilian society. His relentless attacks on the left have found a receptive audience among the many Brazilians who see Lula and the PT as unsavory, blaming their corruption and incompetence for the economic crisis that began in 2014 and from which Brazil never fully recovered.
Bolsonaro also understood that the evangelical Church and the agribusiness barons hold the keys to Brazil in 2022. Around a third of Brazilians are now evangelical, up from a quarter just two decades ago, while agricultural exports are the largest part. of the Brazilian economy, equivalent to $125 billion per year. He has built a sizable base with his support, especially in Congress, where evangelical and agribusiness interests are two of the strongest voting blocs.
The continuing appeal of Bolsonarism inevitably calls into question the role of the left in Brazil. Without the figure of Lula, it is probable that the left would have fought even more in this election.
In many ways, Lula is both his party’s worst enemy and its greatest asset. His charisma and strength of character, as well as his undoubted political flair, have brought him back to the presidential palace.
However, the corruption allegations that have plagued him and his party have permanently tarnished his reputation among many Brazilians, leading to rejection rates almost, though not quite, as high as Bolsonaro’s.
His victory doesn’t change the fact that nearly half the country doesn’t approve of it. For the next four years, the left must find a new figurehead. to join, not just because Lula is divisive, but for the more practical reason that he will not run for a second term.
(Keep reading: Blockades in Brazil for the victory of President Lula da Silva)
Brazil needs Lula to be up to the task
In addition to negotiating political agreements and coalitions, Lula faces the even greater task of uniting a country that has been torn apart in the last four years.
Both sides of the battle are deeply entrenched, with little to no room for middle ground (centrist candidates won just 7% of the vote in the first round).
To win re-election, Lula asked Brazilians to remember what life was like the last time he was president. But Brazil, and the world, were completely different in 2010.
In 2022, Lula will have to deal with a war in Europe and a stagnant global economy, while at the national level he must deal with an economy plagued by an overly complicated tax system and chronically low productivity, as well as levels of polarization in Brazilian society that have spilled over into violence in recent months.
It is not a small task; Brazil needs Lula to be up to the task.
JEREMY BROWNE*
*CEO of Canning House and former Minister of Foreign Affairs for Latin America.
**Canning House is the UK’s leading forum on Latin America.
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