According to data last August, shelter and rental costs rose 0.7 percent, the highest level in one month since 1991, medical care costs rose 0.7 percent, and the consumer price index excluding food and energy rose 0.6 percent compared to July and 6.3 percent on the year. annual basis, while it was expected to rise 0.3 percent, and prices of new cars and trucks continued to rise (0.8 percent), furniture and furnishings (0.5 percent), and equipment (1.2 percent).
surprise data
Amer Al-Shobaki, the international energy consultant, explains that “the data of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, issued last Tuesday, is not expected, as the prevailing belief was that inflation is rising due to energy prices, but energy prices have decreased by 25 percent during the past three months. The price of gasoline in the United States on average is $3.7 per gallon, which means that the high interest rates approved by the Federal Reserve by 75 points twice in a row did not contribute to reducing inflation rates at the desired rate.
High inflation away from oil and food
Al-Shobaki explains in his speech to “Sky News Arabia” that inflation has seeped into the basic consumer price index away from oil and food (the Consumer price index), where its prices are volatile, but it is the true measure of inflation, while the inflation index with oil and gas is emergency, and in the event of Inflation according to this measure increased by an unexpected rate, so there is a possibility that inflation will be long-term and not emergency, and according to these results, expectations indicate the Federal Reserve’s intention to raise the interest rate by 75 points as a minimum and 100 points as a maximum at its next meeting.
New batches of inflation in the winter
Al-Shobaki indicates that the American economy, as well as the global economy, will receive new payments from inflation, according to the expectations of several international institutions, as prices are likely to rise as of next November with the beginning of the winter season, withdrawals from the American strategic oil reserve and the approaching date of European sanctions on Russian oil. On the fifth of December, all of these factors give indications of entering into stagflation.”
In parallel, gas prices will be high in the United States and will contribute to a significant increase in the inflation rate, as the price is now about $9 per million British thermal units (MMBTU), the highest level since the global financial crisis in 2008, in addition to that America pledged to export gas to Europe in the coming season. Winter, according to the International Energy Consultant, who noted that the reports of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency indicate that there is a growth in demand for oil and a production deficit by several countries, especially since the oil-producing countries have reached the lowest levels of production reserves.
artificial inflation
For his part, economist Hussein Al-Qamzi said: “We must remember that inflation in the United States is artificial, as it came as a result of fiscal policies and incentives during the (Covid-19) period, which were aimed at preventing a collapse in the economy, but the US Federal Reserve delayed taking steps to curb it. Thinking that this inflation is temporary, and it will decrease as soon as demand is balanced with supply when things are stable, and this did not happen, so inflation continued to rise.”
And the economist Al-Qamzi indicates in his speech to the “Sky News Arabia” website that “tax policies and government spending are disrupting or slowing down the effect of the Federal Reserve’s measures in raising interest rates, and expectations currently indicate that the Federal Reserve will increase the interest rate at its meeting next Wednesday by 1%, but I think That 75 points in itself is high, especially that there is another increase expected in October.
Al-Qemzi added, “Inflation is still high even with the exception of oil from the index, and the consumer price index is not completely accurate because it calculates within its components rents, and therefore the effect of rents appears late and does not reflect the time period, so I think that the Federal Reserve will look at the producer price index, which is It is usually more accurate to compare the two indicators before making a decision on the rate of interest increase.”
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