Research differs from the other surveys known so far, with the PT marking 48% against 27% of the current president
Search Datafolha released this Thursday (May 26, 2022) shows a result that differs from all the surveys known so far, including the PowerDate. According to a survey by the Grupo Folha company, the former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (EN) marks 48% against 27% of the current president of the Republic, Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
THE PowerDate asks respondents about their voting intentions every 15 days, which allows them to accurately locate variations. In the survey published by the PowerDatecarried out from May 22 to 24, the survey indicated stability in the succession scenario: Lula scored 43%, and the president Bolsonaro35%.
Following the same link, the XP/Ipespe survey carried out from May 16 to 18, 2022 confirmed the trend presented by the PowerDate and showed the PT leader in the 1st round in the 2022 elections. The former president has 44% against 32% of the current chief executive. Here’s the intact (4.2 MB) from the survey released on May 20, 2022.
The Genial/Quaest electoral poll for the presidency of the Republic, released on May 11, shows Lula with 46% of voting intentions, and Bolsonaro, with 29%.
Political scientist Rodolfo Costa Pinto, coordinator of the PowerDateanalyzed the difference between Datafolha and the other surveys.
“The Datafolha survey has different results from most other voting intention studies, published by established companies, with known methodologies and registered with the TSE. Datafolha found that Lula has a 21 percentage point advantage over Bolsonaro in a simulation of the 1st round. In the other surveys, this difference is 8 points (PowerDate), 12 points (Ipespe) and 17 points (Qest)”he said.
Costa Pinto also lacked the interview methodologies used by the surveys.
“Datafolha and Qaest carry out surveys with face-to-face interviews. PowerDate and Ipespe, although with different systems, collect data by telephone. It is important to note, however, that all polls put Lula ahead. In the case of Datafolha, it is possible that methodological issues such as the means of conducting the interviews, the period and even the writing of the questionnaires cause differences in the results”said the political scientist.
Datafolha interviewed, in person, 2,556 people from May 25 to 26 in 181 Brazilian cities. The margin of error is plus or minus two points. The survey is registered with the TSE under number BR-05166/2022.
Search PowerDate held from Sunday morning until early Tuesday evening (May 22-24, 2022) showed that the dispute over the Planalto did not undergo major changes. They have been at this level for over a month, stable, with minimal variations and within the margin of error.
Former Governor of São Paulo João Doria (PSDB) was kept in the study because he only gave up running around noon on Monday (May 23). But that was enough for the toucan to drop to 1% in voting intentions (he scored from 2% to 4% in previous surveys). The effect was small.
the senator Simone Tebet (MDB-MS) scored 2%. Ciro Gomes (PDT) scored 5%. is followed by deputy André Janones (Avante-MG), with 3%. Jose Maria Eymael (DC-RS), who has already been a candidate for president 5 times, has 1% – the same percentage of Luciano Bivar (Brazil Union).
The survey was carried out by PowerDategroup company Power 360 Journalism, with its own resources. Data were collected through calls to cell phones and landlines. There were 3,000 interviews in 301 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation. The margin of error is 2 percentage points. The confidence interval is 95%. The TSE registration is BR-05638/2022.
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