Nobody is surprised. In Venezuela, the disqualification of the opposition member María Corina Machado was not “news” and not because it is not an eventbut it was a predictable movea strategy that the government of Nicolás Maduro has applied over the years and this time would be no exception.
(Also read: The impact that the disability of María Corina Machado will have on primaries in Venezuela)
Machado, from the most radical wing of the factors opposed to Chavismo, has risen like foam in the polls. For the opposition primary elections in Octoberthe latest opinion polls place her with a vote intention of at least 50 percent.
Before the 2024 presidential elections, the latest study by the firm Power and Strategy gives him 28 percent of the votes, leading the polls. In second place is comedian Benjamin Rausseo with 20 percent, and 13 percent goes to whoever wins those primaries. Therefore, the outlook indicates that Nicolás Maduro would not do very well in those elections.
And precisely this would be the reason for the ratification that the Comptroller General of the Republic has made on the disqualification of Machado, alleging that although he had a sanction in 2015, it has already expired, but an “heritage investigation” was opened for what the citizen “is disqualified from holding any public office for a period of 15 years.”
The agency affirms that “errors” were found in the affidavit of the opposition’s assets, in addition to unjustified banking operations and accuses her of participating in the “corruption plot orchestrated by the usurper Juan Gerardo Antonio Guaidó Márquez.”
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Nicolas Maduro President of Venezuela
Federico Parra / AFP
Despite these allegations, “nothing the regime does surprises us. This whole issue of disqualifications neither surprises me nor worries me,” said María Corina Machado, who at the time of learning the news was in a street act right in Barinas, the birthplace of Hugo Chávez.
The same state that in the 2021 elections ended with the Chávez dynasty choosing an opposition governor. Situation that the regime did not like, which disqualified the recently elected Freddy Superlano and called a new election that the counterpart won again, this time with Sergio Garrido, from Acción Democrática.
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“It was completely predictable and was part of what was expected, the strange thing was that they said that it was authorized (María Corina Machado),” says Professor Benigno Alarcón, director of the Center for Political and Government Studies at the Andrés Bello Catholic University.
For Alarcón, the concern at this time should not be the disqualifications, since Freddy Superlano and Henrique Capriles are also sanctioned and that does not prevent them from participating in the primaries. The fundamental thing at this time —says the professor— is that the internal election can be held, since the Government will do everything possible to avoid it.
“One of the things that are predictable and that he could try to do is start threatening the members of the National Primary Commission. Also that they try to stop the primary due to a judicial decision”, explains Benigno Alarcón to EL TIEMPO.
This idea does not seem unreasonable because the Government knows that its popularity is not at its peak.
Today’s decision to disqualify @MariaCorinaYA from participating in the electoral process deprives Venezuelans of basic rights, and we remain concerned by efforts to remake the National Electoral Council. Venezuelans deserve free and fair elections. https://t.co/BRHG2qNbht
—Matthew Miller (@StateDeptSpox) July 1, 2023
In the survey carried out by the consulting firm Poder y Estrategia, Maduro reaches 10 percent of voting intentions before the 2024 contest and precisely this scenario means that “we are seeing a worsening of the government’s actions in terms of its radicalization,” he explains. to this newspaper the consultant and political analyst Giulio Cellini.
All this because the Government feels that his re-election is compromised, says the expert, who believes that an example of intimidation mechanisms is precisely what has just happened with the National Electoral Council. Its rectors will be replaced “probably to incorporate figures that scare the opposition voter.”
“Today they are talking about the disqualification of María Corina, tomorrow she could disqualify anyone else who has a chance to win”says Cellini, giving the example of what happened in Nicaragua, where all of Daniel Ortega’s adversaries were disabled.
So how does Maduro fare against his allies in the region? Cellini answers this question: “Even those presidents who are friends of Maduro in some way are asking for a political agreement to be reached. The same Petro in Colombia”.
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The United States Department of State ruled on the Comptroller’s decision, assuring that in this way Venezuelans are deprived of basic rights.
“We remain concerned about efforts to remake the National Electoral Council. Venezuelans deserve free and fair elections,” Matthew Miller, spokesman for the Secretary of State, wrote on Twitter.
A few hours later, the Venezuelan Foreign Ministry also responded through a statement, assuring that “the United States has no morals or the right to comment on the political processes in our country, which has amply demonstrated that it is sovereign and independent.”
The text also urges the US to apply “correctives” to its electoral system.
For its part, the European Parliament issued a statement in which they reject the measure against Machado and also do not rule out “sanctions for those who seek to pervert the results of the process,” referring to the primaries.
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Precisely, the sanctions are the main discomfort of Chavismo, which has called for their lifting, but the US has been emphatic that they will be maintained until they see progress in democracy and dialogue with the opposition, but the efforts seem to be few.
Interview with María Corina Machado before being disqualified
ANA MARIA RODRIGUEZ BRAZON
WEATHER CORRESPONDENT
CARACAS
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